My Life In Technicolor

Sample Size

I enjoy the first week of baseball because you will have a guy who will hit maybe 3 Home Runs all season, have 2 right now. Or a Cy Young Winner having 2 bad starts and the earth is apparently crumbling under their feet.

Guess what? Here are some things that are true now, but will very much not be in 5 months.

1. The San Diego Padres have won 6 games. They have now won slightly under 10% of their season total. The Florida Marlins are 6-1. Get ready for their next 155 games of 70-85.

2. The Cleveland Indians are 1-7. They have lost slightly under 10% of their season total. The Boston Red Sox are 2-6. Get ready for an 93-61 run.

3. Emilio Bonafacio’s line: 28 ABs/.500/9 R/1 HR/5 RBI/4 SB.

So we can expect a line of 648 ABs/.500/208 R/23 HR/115 RBI/92 SB right?

Umm try 490 AB/.261/80 R/4 HR/49 RBI/27 SB. Not bad, but nothing special.

   Nick Swisher’s line: 24 AB/ .458/ 10 R/ 4 HR/ 11 RBI

Nick Swisher is god right, with a line of 486 AB/ .458/ 200 R/ 81 HR/ 222 RBI ?

Nooooooo. How bout 375 AB/ .235/ 50 R/ 17 HR/ 80 RBI. Again, not bad, but who cares.

4.  Ryan Braun’s line: 526 AB/.192/2 R/ 0 HR/ 2 RBI/ 2 SB

Now, a rib strain did effect in spring-training so it may be affecting, but if that is not the case expect this: 540 AB/.283/90 R/36 HR/105 RBI/14 SB

     Tim Lincecum’s line: 2 GS/ 8.1 IP / 0-2 / 10 K / 7.56 ERA / 2.40 WHIP

It doesn’t seem he has any injury problem, so maybe you should expect something like 30 GS/ 190 IP / 13-9 / 210 K / 3.41 ERA / 1.20 WHIP

It’s called “Sample-Size”. What you have seen so far is basically meaningless. If these trends continue after 100 ABs, then we can talk.


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