UPDATE 4/5/09

After some thought, I realized that my projection is filled with too much hometown hope and bias. I think this better reflects the reality of the situation.

Not surprisingly, this was the hardest division for me to decide. This division could end about 10 ways and none of them would greatly surprise me. To be honest, I think this projection is a bit optimistic and bias. My heart tells me this is how it ends up, but my gut says Mets take it by a few, so take it with a grain of salt.

New York Mets

As I discussed above, their are many ways I could see this division playing out. In none of them do I see the Mets winning anything less than 85 games. They are very solid team at the top, but have many question marks in regards to depth.

The Mets bullpen, which was their great albatross last season, is greatly improved. Francisco Rodriguez was signed for a cheaper than expected, but more than deserved contract, however he is a much needed piece in this bullpen. The real great move was the 12 player trade that landed the Mets J.J, Putz from the Mariners. Putz was the best reliever in 2007 and faltered in 2008 due to injury. All signs point to full health for Putz, who will be asked to set up K-Rod, but really they should be closing in tandem. The Mets probable unwillingness to do so, may cost them a game or two.

The Mets have, in all likelihood the best starter in baseball in Johan Santana, and though he has been dealing with a little bit of elbow soreness this spring, he seems ready to go. Behind him are the underrated Mike Pelfrey and the should be better Oliver Perez. John Maine will round out the rotation with one of Livan Hernandez or Tim Redding. The Mets rotation is good, not great. It was a hole they should have filled in the offseason, but I agree with their decision not to overpay A.J. Burnett or Derek Lowe.

The offense has David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes; 3 of the best players at their respective positions. Any team that sports them will be competitive. Carlos Delgado was so bad in the beginning of last year, they almost cut him, but rebounded to put up a rather spectacular 2008. Which Carlos they get will be important. The rest of the line up is where I have my problem with the Mets.

Ryan Church is a solid role player when he is healthy, which is not overly usual. Daniel Murphy has some upside, but he is somewhat of an unknown at this point especially with the addition of Gary Sheffield. I’m assuming they will be putting out platoons of 2 of Church, Murphy, Sheff, Fernando Tatis and to a lesser extent Jeremy Reed.

Luis Castillo has no business being the starting second baseman on a possible division winner and the same goes for Brian Schneider.

If the Mets get more than expected from their lesser talents, and get solid seasons from their rotation, I could easily see them winning 100 games or so. However, I just do not have faith in Delgado, those platoons and especially Castillo and Schneider.

However, the health of the Phillies is just as big, if not more of a problem.

Player To Watch: SP Mike Pelfrey

The 25 year old right-hander was one of the best pitchers in the league from June-August of last year and showed flashes of brilliance that he deserves to be the #2 behind Johan Santana. However, there were a few clunkers at the beginning and end of the season that make you wonder how they are the same person. Weirdly, the projections are not very favorable to Pelfrey (about a 4 ERA) and I think he will out perform them, at least a little bit. His performance could be bellweather for the rest of his team.

Philadelphia Phillies

How do you top last year? I keep wondering that question over and over and can’t find an answer. Personally, winning the division the last 2 years, in the fashion that they did, was more satisfying than winning the World Series. So, winning the division will be the thing I am hoping for the most. However, that will not be easy, as per usual. The Phillies will bring back basically the championship winning team, minus Pat Burrell and 50 games of JC Romero and plus back-to-back-to-back 100 RBI OF Raul Ibanez and hopefully some young blood in C Lou Marson and if needed IF Jason Donald.

The key to this teams success is going to be the same as it was in 2008: the bullpen. The Phil’s pen pitched out of their mind, and really over their suggestive ability. If the Phillies get 80% of that bullpen they should consider themselves lucky and hope for the best.

The offense is going to be strong as usual. Ryan Howard will hit 40-50 HRs with 130 RBI’s, but doing so with an OBP and K rate that make you wonder how this is possible. This spring he has looked phenomenal, and if he can start spraying the ball and get a little lucky with a BABIP over .300 he will be in line for his second MVP (though most likely undeserved again). The outfield combo is probably 2nd best offensively in the game, only behind the Dodgers trio of Ramirez, Kemp and Ethier. Oh…and they haveBaseball Jesus…soooooo.

As I stated with the bullpen, the pitching is going to be the difference maker for this team. Brett Myers showed no one can expect anything, Jamie Moyer is 46 and basically broke PECOTA and Cole Hamels threw more pitches than anyone in baseball last year and any kind of injury metric says Hamels is almost certain to be hurt this year. My projection is for a healthy Hamels, and a decent Jamie Moyer. If either implode, the Mets might run away with this.

Player To Watch: SP Cole Hamels

Not much more I have to say about Hamels. He is one of the top 5 pitchers in the game, and when he is on, no one will beat him. But last year, he threw 263 innings. He threw 190 in 2007. A 73 inning bump, on an arm that already had past injury problems and you have a formula for disaster. I can only pray.

Atlanta Braves

I applaud the Braves front office for going out and addressing the glaring weaknesses of this team. They were bad last year. Very bad. Thankfully for Braves fans they went out and got Javier Vazquez from the White Sox and overpaid for Derek Lowe, to help add much needed talent and depth to their rotation. Lowe is overpaid, but still a reliable #3 type guy and Vazquez projects as good as almost anyone on paper every year, but for some reason just can’t ever put it together. They will be joined by young guns Jair Jurrjens and rookie Tommy Hanson.

The offensive and defensive side of the ball is going to be the main points for the Braves. Other than Hall-of-Famer-to-be Chipper Jones, who will miss too many at bats and 2008 Catcher of the Year Brian McCann, the Braves do not have much to talk about. Kelly Johnson has an underrated bat and glove for a 2nd baseman and hopefully he can prove himself even more in 2009. Yunel Escobar looks like he should be better than he is, but he is the 5th best shortstop in this division. The rest of the crew is made up of either very young players that are hard to project or veterans who are bringing this team down.

Player To Watch: OF Jeff Francoeur 

Francoeur started his career with an amazing rookie year that saw him blast 22 homers in 4/5 a season. Since then, his power has declined, his averages plummeted, and has kept his job only because of his above average defense and arm like a fuckin’ rocket.

Francoeur has been working with a new hitting coach this off-season and scouts say that he looks rejuvenated. If Francoeur can get back to his rookie numbers, or even close to it, he will be a highly valuable overall player for this young team.

Florida Marlins

Though I would have 2 world titles since 1997 alone, I don’t think I could take being a Marlins fan. They trade away any decent player with overrated value and are almost in a constant rebuilding phase. The part that would kill me would be the part of knowing that the front office runs a very profitable business in doing so and are very wise.

The Marlins traded away a few of their more widely known players in Mike Jacobs, Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen. They come back with a pitching staff led by the breakout star of the second half of 2008 in Ricky Nolasco and 2009 breakout (again) candidate in Josh Johnson. They will be supported by some younger pitchers in Anibal Sanchez and Chris Volstad. I agree with many analysts statements that the Marlins may have the best starting rotation in the East. However, I highly emphasize MAY. There are a lot of questions in regards to health and experience from all pitchers in the rotation.

Unfortunately for those guys, they have a bullpen that is not going to be awful, but is not going to win a ton of games for this team. I don’t think I can emphasize how important a well put together bullpen is.

The offense will be led by All-World SS Hanley Ramirez who should again post up jaw dropping numbers, and get no credit from the mainstream media. Dan Uggla is a solid power second baseman and should be expected to put somewhere close to 30 HR, 100 RBI. The rest of the team is filled with a lot of guys who could easily break out or outperform their projections, but also crash and burn in doing so. I just don’t buy into a team depending so much on so many role players to carry the team. Though fear not Marlins fans, I’m assuming you should have another championship in a year or two.

Player To Watch: OF Cameron Maybin

I don’t understand how more analysts aren’t talking about this guy. He is the classic type of hitter who turns into one of the greats. He has 30 home run power, he has 60 SB speed. The only fault is an average that will leave you wanting a bit more and plate discipline that still needs to be refined. However, he is only 22 years old, so this kid is only going to get better and better. Don’t be surprised if he is winning an MVP in 2 or 3 years.

Washington Nationals

The Nationals are an intriguing team. They have an offense that is actually pretty solid. However, that is complimented with one of the youngest and most likely worst pitching staffs in all the game. Their bullpen is almost non-existent and their rotation has one holdover from last year in that son-of-a-bitch John Lannan. He will be accompanied by rookies Jordan Zimmermann and Sean Martis who have definite potential and veterans Scott Olsen and Daniel Cabrera who are just plain bad. Their offense better score a lot of runs.

That offense will be powered at the top by probably my biggest sleeper in short stop Christian Guzman. Guzman has put up solid numbers when he has been healthy, putting up a .316 average last season while providing gold-glove caliber defense. I’m expecting another solid year from him and hopefully and uptick in speed. He will be followed by young guns Lastings Milledge who has the tools to be amazing and Elijah Dukes who will be given a starting job to prove that he is worth all the headaches he has caused over the years with his behavior. Combine that with power OBP guys Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman, Nick Johnson and Josh Willingham, and you have a very dangerous line up that will always be able to close a gap.

However…that pitching…

Player To Watch: 3B Ryan Zimmerman

2009 will be important for the Nationals’ 3rd Baseman to prove that he belongs the moniker of “Star”. After putting up a very solid rookie year in 2006, Zimmerman has been barely above average at the plate. Though he does sport a good glove and arm, it won’t carry him at the very demanding offensive position of 3rd.

I think he has it in him to jack 30 homers and have an OBP over .375. But I wouldn’t bet on it. Prove me wrong Z. 

THATS IT! CHECK BACK TOMORROW FOR MY POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS!