The AL East is the powerhouse of baseball. The top 3 teams could easily win any division, and at least one of them will have to miss out on the playoffs. The Orioles would compete in either West division and the Blue Jays could probably do the same.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are the best organization in baseball from top to bottom. The top of the division could play out many ways, but betting on the Red Sox is the safest choice. Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis are maybe a little overrated, but still are top tier talents. Along with an almost certain breakout from Jacoby Ellsbury in the leadoff spot and Jason Bay in his contract year, the Sox offense is going to be a nuisance to the rest of the division.

The pitching staff is basically as good as it gets from top to bottom. When Clay Bucholz is your 6th or 7th starter, you know you have depth. As long as the Sox stay healthy, which could be a big factor, they should easily approach 100 wins.

Player To Watch: OF Jacoby Ellsbury

Ellsbury, age 25, is coming into what will probably be the most important season for the Red Sox. Whether they get the freak speed machine they got the first couple of months, or the better batter they got the rest of the year, or some wonderful combo of both, is going to be indicative of their offensive potential this year and for the next 5 or so. Personally, I think we will see an absurd season. Something like .300, 120 R, 60 SB. I have him on both my fantasy teams, so here’s hoping.

New York Yankees

The Yankees spent a little bit of money this offseason (only $432 million is all). What they got was probably the 1st or 2nd best pitcher in the game with C.C. Sabathia and one of the top 5 safest bets with a bat in Mark Teixiera.

They also got A.J. Burnett, the owner of 2 good seasons out of 10. Those 2 seasons conspicuously came in his walk years. Coincidence? I think not. If they get 60% of 2008 Burnett, the Yankees will probably be lucky, just paying a lot for that luck.

The starting pitching is pretty disgusting, considering Joba Chamberlin is their #5. The bullpen needs some help, though they do have the greatest closer of all time. Thing is hhe is 38, and at some point, he has to falter.

The offense will be typical Yankees, strong but on paper seemingly unimpressive. Teix is a stud, and a healthy A Rod is…well fuckin A Rod. The Yankees will be looking for big rebound years from Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada, and another solid year from the somehow now underrated Johnny Damon.

The difference between the Red Sox and Yankees are not really a matter of talent. It’s the fact that the Red Sox have a little more depth but with health risks, and the Yanks have more top level talent but banking a lot of hope on some players getting better and others not getting worse. To me, I’ll take the depth and health risks.

Player To Watch: SP A.J. Burnett

Like I said before, A.J. just does not have the history to prove that he should be worth the $81 million the Yanks gave him. When A.J. is good, he is jaw-droppingly good. But he just can’t stay healthy and he just can’t stay overly consistent. If they get a consistent and healthy A.J., along with no freak accidents with the rest of their stars, the Yankees could be unstoppable.

Tampa Bay Rays

The fact that if the season plays out like I predict it will, the Rays will miss the playoffs really would be an ugly mark on the face of MLB. This team is very good, and though I see a regression in their pitching staff and defense from last year, they still could beat almost any other division winner out there.

The offense has names like B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford. A pitching staff that has Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, Grant Balfour, and some guy named David Price who will for some fucking reason, be starting the year in AAA. Those names right their tell me they should be a very good team. What puts them into the elite class is how much their front office has put together a team that takes defense into account. The 2008 Rays had the highest turn around in run differential in the history of baseball, and a lot of that has to do with the defense of guys like Jason Bartlett at short and Evan Longoria at 3rd. I think they can be close to that kind of team again, but I think the Sox, and Yankees especially, have improved a lot of their holes. The Rays went out and did fill the gap of a right handed power bat in picking up Pat Burrell (I’ll miss you forever) on the cheap.

The Rays could easily outperform this projection, but I think whether they make the playoffs will be affected more by the other teams in their division than themselves.

Player To Watch: 3B Evan Longoria

Longoria, the reigning AL Rookie-of-the-Year, is in the same boat as his NL counterpart Geovany Soto of having to prove there will be no sophomore slump. His stats show a player that is at the top of their game, however if you give his game a closer look you will see a player who has something to prove.

Longoria was helped by an unsustainable .318 BABIP. The most alarming stat is his 24.1% K rate. Longoria struck out 122 times in 488 at-bats, extrapolate that to 600 AB’s and you are looking at 150 Ks. Longoria isn’t Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn, who walk and leave the park enough to allow those to be somewhat tolerated; Longoria only walked at a 9.1% rate.

If Longoria wants to prove he belongs with the super big boys, then he needs to work on his plate discipline. We should know by the All-Star break whether we will see Evan Longoria: Super Star Stud or Evan Longoria: Super Star Dud.

Baltimore Orioles

It sucks being an Orioles fan (yes I consider myself at least a mild Orioles fan from my Cal Ripken days).

They have actually put together a pretty solid team. If they were in the AL West, I think they would win about 10 more games. Thats the difference between the East and West. 

The O’s have some great young talent in Nick Markakis and an emerging Adam Jones. 2nd Baseman Brian Roberts is one of the best average-speed combos in the game and DH/CI Aubrey Huff put together a pretty impressive season last year, though I doubt he gets close to those numbers again. They have a good group of guys surrounding them that should give the O’s a pretty good offense. The other reason I really like this team I’ll get to later.

The pitching staff is the reason the Orioles don’t have any chance in the history of ever to be even close to the top 3 in this division. They really have no one. Like nobody at all. Once the O’s put together a good staff, they will be knocking on the door of the triumphant.

Player To Watch: C Matt Wieters

If I had to pick one player in my PTW sections that I can’t wait to see, its Wieters. If you look at his professional career so far, you will be left gasping. This kid is the definition of Stud. He is so good, that without ever playing one inning in the major leagues, PECOTA has projected him to be the 5th most valuable player in baseball this year. That is if he played the entire year, which he will not because of the Orioles desire to keep in the minors until the end of May to gain another year of control over this freak show. I really can’t blame them, but its a shame we won’t get to see what he can do in a full season.

Toronto Blue Jays

How the Blue Jays have won the amount of games they have over the last few years astonishes me a little. They have great players in SP Roy Halladay and OF Alex Rios. Vernon Wells has shown in the past that he is very, very talented, and will try to get over injury problems from the last year. 

The thing is, they just do not have depth, they do not have anywhere close to a great offense and their pitching staff has talent, but not without tons of health risk.

There is no need for them to be spending tons on a team that has no shot of winning a division or wild card, and I would bet that we see a very different team on the field in September then we do right now.

Player To Watch: OF Travis Snider

Ask any fantasy writer and one of the few names they will say if you ask them to name the players to watch that no one is talking about, and they will almost all say Travis Snider.

Scouts from rival teams have said that Snider is the best hitter on the Blue Jays right now, and he hasn’t ever played a major league game. If the Blue Jays decide rebuilding is now, Snider will show whether he can be the cornerstone for that process.

COMING TOMORROW NL EAST, finally!!!