Quick post today, mostly because I’m tired and partly because this is a very boring division.

Chicago Cubs

How much more talent the Cubs have over their division is astounding. If the Cubs don’t win this division by 8 games or more, they should be ashamed.

They have a solid, though not elite line up, that should score plenty of runs for their pitching staff. That pitching staff has the skill set to be the best in the league…by a lot. Rich Harden is probably the best pitcher in baseball when he is healthy. The only thing is, he isn’t healthy a lot.

That kind of injury risk is the only thing keeping this team down. If they stay as healthy as the Phlllies did in 2008, we could be looking at a +105 win team. If they are as injury plagued as some of their players histories might suggest, they may actually have to pull one out of their hat. I just doubt it will be that bad.

Player To Watch: C Geovany Soto

I hate to use a cliche, but is a sophomore slump in line for the reigning Rookie-of-the-Year. My guess is no. He showed fantastic power and plate discipline last season, and his numbers were not really a product of luck or being unseen. The Cubs lineup could hold up a regression, however if Soto comes out and puts up a season superior to last season, this line up could get scary.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have lost their top 2 starters from last season in C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets. Yovanni Gallardo will be asked to carry the…weight left behind by Sabathia and become the teams #1 guy. Beyond Gallardo, the Brewers are throwing out some intriguing names. Dave Bush and Manny Parra are underrated pitchers, but they are not 2’s or 3’s respectively. The bullpen may be worse.

Trevor Hoffman will takeover the reigns of closer for a team not the Padres for the first time in his career. Though PECOTA is high on him, I just don’t buy it. He is old, he is coming off a big injury, and he is not far from his baseball grave.

This team has some talent, which is going to lead them to at least .500, I just don’t see much else to talk about.

Player To Watch: OF Ryan Braun

God damnit is Ryan Braun good. The difference between him and Prince Fielder, their next highest rated talent, is astounding. I think this will be Ryan Braun’s coming out party for the rest of the country that doesn’t know him. I would say I think he will be MVP, but that award is such horseshit 3/4 of the time, that I won’t. 

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are a few pieces away from being great. However, this season they do not have those pieces and they aren’t in their system either. This team will hit, as will any team that has Albert Pujols (read:God) batting clean up. Their problem is their defense. Its not just bad; it’s horrendous. This isn’t helped by moving Mr. Cement Hands, Skip Shumacker to man the wheel at 2nd.

The Cards would be well served if they read Moneyball. All I’m saying.

Player To Watch: SP Chris Carpenter

The 2005 Cy Young award winner is now just under 23 months removed from Tommy John surgery, making a very closely watched comeback in July of last year. At age 34, he should be in heavy decline now, or very soon. The Cardinals will be watching him very closely because any possible success this season, and possibly in the next few, are contingent on his arm.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are a team that could surprise a lot of people. They also could fall right on their faces; Dusty Baker is their manager so…

The team has some unbelievable young talent in Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. Brandon Phillips is a top tier 2nd baseman, and their pitching staff is full of talent, but as with most teams around their record, they don’t come without question marks.

The Reds success or failure will lay squarely on their pitching staff. Edison Volquez will be asked to be the Edison Volquez that was asked to start the All-Star game, and not the one that posted a ERA over 4 in the second half. Johnny Cueto will have his chance to show that he should be mentioned with some of the great young pitchers in the game.

The bullpen could use some help, but are set up to be one of those surprise bullpens that is usually seen every season.

I think the less Dusty Baker gets to make decisions, the better this team is going to be.

Player To Watch: SP Aaron Harang

Harang was among the lower elite in baseball from 05-07, and most expected more of the same in 2008. However, what he gave was a pathetic season where he saw his ERA grow past 5. Now, Harang got unlucky and was asked to do a lot (Only Dusty Baker would put him into the 14th inning of a game and ask him to go 5 innings on 1 day rest. Which Harang the Reds get will make the world of difference for this team.

Houston Astros

The Astros are going to be terrible. Like really terrible. And for a long time. They have the worst farm system in baseball and have some terrible contracts on the books that won’t allow them to fix many of their glaring problems.

Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt are elite, and Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence are solid players, but the rest of the team around them is pathetic. Other than SP Wandy Rodriguez and to some extent, closer Jose Valverde, they don’t have another pitcher anyone should ever hear of.

I have them winning 74 games because I see GM Ed Wade doing some sort of deal that further mortgages their future just to not lose 100 games.

Player To Watch: C J.R. Towles

What will matter for Towles is two-fold. First, he has to hope the team realizes that Ivan Rodriguez is not the answer. Secondly, he has to start hitting in the majors like he did in the minors. He had a truly awful season last year. If in limited playing time he can show he got his stroke back, I think they will give him his job back.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates are rebuilding, finally. Their new front office is one of the best up and coming operations in the game. They have some talent in CF Nate McClouth (Though not his glove, which is not Gold. A -20 UZR score anyone?), 1b Adam LaRoche is an underrated power hitter, and we will see if Ryan Doumit can follow up his solid 2008 with another strong showing. Past that however, their isn’t a lot, and their depth is non-existent.

Their pitching is worse. Paul Maholm is solid, but he should be no team’s #1. Ian Snell has the skills, but just can’t seem to put it all together. Matt Capps is a solid relief pitcher, but on a team this bad, he will never get the notoriety that he deserves. Once you leave those guys, I honestly can’t name one pitcher on their roster, which is saying something.

This team will be good in 2-3 years, I know they will. Especially if they keep churning out prospects like OF Andrew McCuthen who could be this year’s Jay Bruce.

Player To Watch: SP Ian Snell

This will be the make or break season for Snell, who has showed both flashes of brilliance and of idiocy. He has the K’s to hold up a decent ERA, however he has to keep his walk rate low and balls down or he will see another +5 ERA.

COMING UP TOMORROW AL EAST!