In all honesty, the AL Central is a tough division to project. I could see any of these 5 teams winning this division. There is no elite team, but the worst team isn’t all that bad.

Cleveland Indians

The Indians should have the AL Central last year, and probably could have if they didn’t trade 3 Months of Cy Young caliber work from C.C. Sabathia. Hopefully, 6 years of Matt Leporta is worth that (I would say it is). They are sturdy all around, but have room for improvement everywhere. There pitching staff is deep, but assuming Cliff Lee comes back to live with us, they aren’t very top heavy. Their offense should score plenty, but lacking a big high-OBP slugger (Travis Hafner where are you?!), the Indians aren’t going to be on the top tier of line ups. However, their all around depth should give them the step up over the rest of the division.

Player To Watch: SP Cliff Lee

The Indians’ playoff hopes could rest on the arm of last years Cy Young award winner. Last year he led the league in W (22), Starter’s ERA(2.54), BB/9 and top 10 in WHIP(1.11). He did this while being somewhat unlucky (.305 BABIP). What he did benefit from was an amazing home-run rate that will certainly regress to the mean. If Lee is 90% of the ‘08 version, the Indians should have no trouble winning. If he is 75% or less, and this will be a challenge.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers must make their fans want to tear their eyes out. Its hard enough living in Detroit these days, and when a team spends over $100 million to put an average team on the field while they are pinching every penny they can. The team has a few bright spots, but just seem average at best in many areas. Miguel Cabrera is almost as good as it gets when it comes to a hitter (A fielder is another story). Curtis Granderson is real talent too.

However, this team has an average pitching staff that should be much better, and being paid like it should be too. I think they are an average team, but with Cabrera and Granderson are going to put up huge seasons if healthy, so they should make up the difference, and make them competitive.

Player To Watch: SP Justin Verlander

Verlander didn’t have a lost season last year, though you would think he did by how little you heard from this ace. He was completely forgettable and showed barely a flash of his old self. Now the metrics show that he got unlucky with a .305 BABIP, and a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) .68 points below his ERA. The real key was his walk rate, which increased by 30% over 2007 (2.99 to 3.90). Most projection systems see him falling somewhere in the middle of 2007 and 2008, and I think how far he is in either direction will be a big determinant for his team’s chances.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins did the exact opposite of what was expected of them last year by scoring 800 runs but giving up more than their pitching staff would suggest. Of course, they did this with one of the most ridiculous stats of last year, a .315 average with RISP. Thats completely out of control.

Not to sound like a broken record, but their pitching staff is just like the Indians and Tigers: good, but nothing special. They will give the team slightly above average run prevention, and hopefully a solid bullpen can give them a shot.

Their offense will regress. Morneau will give another high quality, but overrated season. The outfield has tons of depth when Delmon Young is fighting for a spot, but Denard Span has the tools to be a very productive player for the Twinkies.

Player To Watch: C Joe Mauer

Mauer is the best catcher in the game. When he’s healthy that is. Mauer has always been susceptible to the injury bug, and is currently fighting off some major back problems. How much these problems are going to hinder his ability remains to be seen, but his power has yet to be seen in his career, and this should only make it less likely that it will show up. Mauer’s season will make or break his team.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals are nice young team with a lot of potential…just not right now. They still lack depth in the pitching staff and could use a couple of above average players in their lineup. They will be better than last year, but I do not understand the need to spend $70 million to field a team that in all likelihood will finish under 500. This isn’t Mariners stupid, but its close.

Player To Watch: 3B Alex Gordon

Gordon has shown flashes of brilliance in his brief career, but has yet to put a solid season together. I believe he can achieve a .285/30 HR/100 RBI season, but if the past couple of seasons are any indication, bank on something closer to .275/20/80.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are very strange. They have some great young talent in Carlos Quentin, Alexei Ramirez and Gavin Floyd. They have some underrated talents in John Danks and Paul Konerko. And some solid veteran players in Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome.

That being said, Quentin and Ramirez are overrated, if maybe only a little. Floyd is going to be murdered this season; Trust me on that. Dye, and especially Thome are on the very wrong side of 30.

Danks and Konerko are talented but don’t have the team around them to make it matter. The pitching is blah and the defense is not very good. This team could pull a 2005 White Sox and get the best bullpen of the decade out of nowhere and compete, but barring a miracle…or 2…or 3, they should be bad.

Player To Watch: OF Carlos Quentin

Whether Quentin comes back to his MVP caliber level from his broken wrist unaffected will be the biggest question of April for South-side fans. Quentin was on his way to an MVP until the injury. He led the AL with 38 HR’s, and the power and speed he showed will be highly needed for this team to have any shot in hell.

COMING UP TOMORROW: NL CENTRAL