The NL West, like its American League counterpart, is not elite in talent, and far closer to the average. However, unlike the AL West, we should see some high quality play at the top from the Dodgers lineup and the Diamondbacks pitching. The Giants could surprise, but only if their young players come through and provide the defense needed to overcome their very below average bats.

Here’s how I see it shaping out:

This could be a dog fight like 2008, but I doubt we’ll see the Diamondbacks start off so hot or fall off so much.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have a very dangerous top of the line up with Furcal/Kemp/Ethier/Ramirez. Kemp could break out and become the next Beltran, and honestly so could Ethier. If Manny puts up 80% of last year, he’ll be worth it. The question mark is the pitching. Chad Billingsley is coming back from off-season leg surgery, Randy Wolf is a constant ?, and Clayton Kershaw will be asked to do some heavy lifting even though he just became allowed to drink last week.

Player To Watch: OF Matt Kemp

Kemp stole 35 bases, and hit 18 home runs with a .290 average. However, he did so with a ridiculous .390 BABIP that should come down significantly. Kemp will have to be more disciplined at the plate (158 K’s to 46 BB’s) if he wants to put up comparable or better numbers. If he does, a super star could be born.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks blew up last year, and gave away the division a la the 2007 Mets, the only difference being they did it in Late August/Early September going 4-15 from August 24-September 14. This year should provide a similar team, if at least one easier to project. Their young guys have another year experience, and their pitching staff is better at the top, but not as deep. If the bottom of their pitching staff can be a little more than league average, I think they could be closer to 88+ wins.

Player To Watch: OF Justin Upton

In physics, potential energy is based on altitude and mass. In physics, Justin Upton would be a million kg ball on top of mount everest. He is only 21, and has the skill set to not only be better than his brother B.J., but one day be in the air reserved for the Pujols’ and Utleys’ of the game.

Last year, was not the coming out party people expected, hitting just .250 with 15 HRs. However, he OBPed a 100 points higher, and he improved his SLG % by 100 points over the year prior. I’m projecting a .370 OBP, .510 SLG, with 25 HRs. Keep an eye on this kid.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants are the first of my 2 sleeper picks this year. This off season the Giants’ front office went out in the best buyer’s market in decades and put together a pitching staff that will compete with any team in baseball. Lincecum is pure lightening, Matt Cain always looks like he should break out, Jonathan Sanchez needs to gain a little control to be very good, and Randy Johnson still touches the mid 90’s at age 45. The bullpen is solid, and should add 2 or 3 wins themselves over last years team. If only Barry Zito could learn how to pitch again.

The question mark is the offense that is filled with young, inexperienced players or below average hitters that have no business being major league starters. If they can be anywhere near league average, this team could put together an 85 win season.

Player To Watch: 3B Pablo Sandoval

Sandoval, who can play the corners and also catch, is surprisingly versatile for someone whose average may equal their weight. If he became the Giants’ catcher his bat would be incredibly valuable along the lines of McCann in Atlanta. However, he will play mostly 3rd where his value declines, but we could see a breakout season of a +300 average, 20 Homers and an OPS over 900.

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies, a year removed from representing the National League in the World Series, are a team that are trying to compete that probably should be rebuilding. They have some top notch players with Troy Tulowitski coming back from an injury plagued sophomore season and 3B Garrett Atkins trying to prove he is All-Star material. 

However, Todd Helton is in the twilight of his career, and probably should not be playing regular first base for this team. The pitching is nothing to write home about and other than Aaron Cook, this could be a very unspectacular staff.

There is hope for the future though, with players like 5 Star Prospect CF Dexter Fowler one step away from coming to play with the big boys. Fowler is almost as good of a prospect as they come, and along with quality pitching in the minors, the Rockies could be back in a year or two.

Player To Watch: 2B Clint Barmes

Barmes has never gotten solid playing time before, but has shown flashes of talent in the past when he had the opprotunity. He will be the Rockies’ starting 2B and any hopes of them competing will be contingent on guys like Barmes stepping up and giving above average seasons.

San Diego Padres

The Padres were bad last year, and they may just be worst this year. They could easily be under that 69 win total, and I only imagine if they were in the AL East; they would probably only win 45 games or so. The pitching is OK, however past Cy Young winner Jake Peavy, who vary well could be gone by July 31, their is no one of note to talk about. The offense is even worse, and not because of their home park. They are full of send offs from other teams, but unlike the Billy Beane A’s of the early 00’s, they are not the affordable unappreciated ones. This is going to be an ugly year in San Diego.

Player To Watch: 1B Adrian Gonzalez

Gonzalez is a real talent, and if he was still in Texas, we could be looking at a 50 homer, 140 RBI guy this season. However, he plays in PETCO Park, where home runs die at a rate similar to brain cells while watching The Hills. 

COMING UP TOMORROW: AL CENTRAL!