My Life In Technicolor

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And The Winner Is… Well, finally this race is over on Sunday and after 6 months of following this race I’m kind of glad it’s over.  There were some pretty awful snubs (The Boss, The Bat, The Robot) but also some good picks (In Bruges, Henson, Leo).  Here are my will, could, should picks, I hope I’m 16/24 or better. Best Picture: Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire Could Win: Milk Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button This one is pretty cut and dry. Best Director: Will Win: Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire Could Win: David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Should Win: David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button There is no way Danny Boyle loses. Best Actor: Will Win: Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler Could Win: Sean Penn - Milk Should Win: Either This is the closest race of all, and really either pick would be correct to me, which hopefully doesn’t mean they split the vote and Langella wins. The more I think about it, the more I realize how amazing Penn’s performance was.  When you consider what kind of person Penn is, the transformation is that much more unbelievable. Best Actress: Will Win: Kate Winslet - The Reader Could Win: Meryl Streep - Doubt Should Win: Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married It’s a shame that Winslet will most likely be getting her first Oscar for the first performance that is truly undeserving. I mean really, she should have about 2 or 3 by now for Eternal Sunshine, Little Children, Little Women, Finding Neverland to just name a few. Streep has a clear shot, and Melissa Leo has been gaining some real late buzz, but I wish this was going to Hathaway who gave her first career defining performance in RGM, a movie that has been gravely overlooked. Best Supporting Actor: Will Win: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight Could Win: I would not wish to be the man who win’s if it’s not Heath. Should Win: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight Locked. Best Supporting Actress: Will Win: Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Could Win: Penelope Cruz - Vicky Christina Barcelona Should Win: Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button This is my biggest upset pick, that has been gaining some friction (i.e. Nate Silver…Dan.), and I really think the performance is the most easily liked of the 5 and in a film that is obviously liked by the Academy. Cruz could take it, mostly on her recent body of work or Davis for the same reason Leo could win for Actress. Best Original Screenplay: Will Win: Milk Could Win: Wall-E Should Win: In Bruges This is a category that could go down a lot of ways and I think depends on how some other votes go. I think Milk wins, because I think Sean Penn loses and there are a lot of people who want to honor Milk. Wall-E could take it if Milk supporters go after Penn. Of course in my theory, they could split the Milk vote and they lose both. In this case I think its Wall-E the favorite and In Bruges as the big upset pick, something I would love to see. Best Adapted Screenplay: Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire Could Win: The Reader Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire 99% Slumdog takes this too on it’s road to anywhere from 6-9 Oscars. Best Editing: Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire Could Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Should Win: The Dark Knight I highly doubt Slumdog loses here, but its in the realm of possibility that they go somewhere else. Best Cinematography: Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire Could Win: The Dark Knight Should Win: The Dark Knight Again, I just don’t see Slumdog losing this year very much, but some people may be wowed by TDK’s innovation. Best Art Direction: Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Could Win: Revolutionary Road Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button This is a tough category that traditionally would go to the likes of Button, so I’ll go with that pick. However, I have some suspicion that Revolutionary Road might have more supporters now, and may want to give it something. Best Costume Design: Will Win: The Duchess Could Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button I liked Tapley’s take on this category, that often this goes to “most designed” not best designed, which would say that Duchess will take this one. Best Makeup: Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Could Win: The Dark Knight Should Win: Hellboy II: The Golden Army All 3 would be deserving winners here.  Button’s makeup was innovative, TDK’s was iconic, and Hellboy’s was the hardest achievement. I’ll buy the Button love. Best Visual Effects: Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Could Win: Iron Man Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button If Button loses this one, it loses them all. Best Sound Mixing: Will Win: Wall-E Could Win: Slumdog Millionaire Should Win: Wall-E If Slumdog is the barn burner it has looked like for the last 2 months, it takes these sound categories. I think voters know they will be giving the film 6 or 7 other awards, so they may make the correct choices and go with the robot and the bat. Best Sound Editing: Will Win: The Dark Knight Could Win: Slumdog Millionaire Should Win: The Dark Knight Same explanation as Mixing. Best Original Score Will Win: A.R. Rahman - Slumdog Millionaire Could Win: Thomas Newman - Wall-E Should Win: Alexandre Desplat - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Slumdog love goes here, though people may want to spread the love and give Newman his first Oscar in a million nominations (8 to be exact.) Best Orignal Song: Will Win: Jai Ho - Slumdog Millionaire Could Win: Down To Earth - Wall-E Should Win: None. I wish on my earlier Oscar pool predictions I would have wised up to the Jai Ho love, but it really could go either way. Although, neither deserve the award, someone else does. Best Animated Feature: Will Win: Wall-E Could Win: Kung Fu Panda Should Win: Wall-E I would say this is locked up, but KFP did go 13-13 at the Annie’s, where Wall-E came up empty handed. Best Foreign Language Film: Will Win: Waltz With Bashir Could Win: The Class Should Win: The Class Foreign Language and the rest of the categories are crap shoots, that prognostigators can never really get a grip of. Not to be stereotypical, but I’ll go with Bashir, which I assume will get a lot of the Jewish vote. Best Documentary Feature: Will Win: Man On Wire Could Win: Trouble In The Water Should Win: Man on Wire Man on Wire has been the long assumed favorite, but really who knows? Best Live Action Short: Will Win: Toyland Could Win: Pig Should Win: Toyland Based on buzz, I’d say its between these two. Best Animated Short: Will Win: Presto Could Win: La Maison en Petits Cubes Should Win: Presto Hard to go against Pixar. Best Documentary Short: Will Win: The Conscience of Nhem En Could Win: The Witness Should Win: The Conscience of Nhem En Media picks are with The Witness, but out of the people who have seen all of the nominees, (something that is a requirement to vote on the shorts) say that is the weakest of the 4 and Nhem En is the strongest. Zoom

And The Winner Is…

Well, finally this race is over on Sunday and after 6 months of following this race I’m kind of glad it’s over.  There were some pretty awful snubs (The Boss, The Bat, The Robot) but also some good picks (In Bruges, Henson, Leo).  Here are my will, could, should picks, I hope I’m 16/24 or better.

Best Picture:

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Could Win: Milk

Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

This one is pretty cut and dry.

Best Director:

Will Win: Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire

Could Win: David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Should Win: David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

There is no way Danny Boyle loses.

Best Actor:

Will Win: Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Could Win: Sean Penn - Milk

Should Win: Either

This is the closest race of all, and really either pick would be correct to me, which hopefully doesn’t mean they split the vote and Langella wins.

The more I think about it, the more I realize how amazing Penn’s performance was.  When you consider what kind of person Penn is, the transformation is that much more unbelievable.

Best Actress:

Will Win: Kate Winslet - The Reader

Could Win: Meryl Streep - Doubt

Should Win: Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married

It’s a shame that Winslet will most likely be getting her first Oscar for the first performance that is truly undeserving. I mean really, she should have about 2 or 3 by now for Eternal Sunshine, Little Children, Little Women, Finding Neverland to just name a few.

Streep has a clear shot, and Melissa Leo has been gaining some real late buzz, but I wish this was going to Hathaway who gave her first career defining performance in RGM, a movie that has been gravely overlooked.

Best Supporting Actor:

Will Win: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight

Could Win: I would not wish to be the man who win’s if it’s not Heath.

Should Win: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight

Locked.

Best Supporting Actress:

Will Win: Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Could Win: Penelope Cruz - Vicky Christina Barcelona

Should Win: Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

This is my biggest upset pick, that has been gaining some friction (i.e. Nate Silver…Dan.), and I really think the performance is the most easily liked of the 5 and in a film that is obviously liked by the Academy. Cruz could take it, mostly on her recent body of work or Davis for the same reason Leo could win for Actress.

Best Original Screenplay:

Will Win: Milk

Could Win: Wall-E

Should Win: In Bruges

This is a category that could go down a lot of ways and I think depends on how some other votes go. I think Milk wins, because I think Sean Penn loses and there are a lot of people who want to honor Milk. Wall-E could take it if Milk supporters go after Penn. Of course in my theory, they could split the Milk vote and they lose both. In this case I think its Wall-E the favorite and In Bruges as the big upset pick, something I would love to see.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Could Win: The Reader

Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire

99% Slumdog takes this too on it’s road to anywhere from 6-9 Oscars.

Best Editing:

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Could Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Should Win: The Dark Knight

I highly doubt Slumdog loses here, but its in the realm of possibility that they go somewhere else.

Best Cinematography:

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Could Win: The Dark Knight

Should Win: The Dark Knight

Again, I just don’t see Slumdog losing this year very much, but some people may be wowed by TDK’s innovation.

Best Art Direction:

Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Could Win: Revolutionary Road

Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

This is a tough category that traditionally would go to the likes of Button, so I’ll go with that pick. However, I have some suspicion that Revolutionary Road might have more supporters now, and may want to give it something.

Best Costume Design:

Will Win: The Duchess

Could Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

I liked Tapley’s take on this category, that often this goes to “most designed” not best designed, which would say that Duchess will take this one.

Best Makeup:

Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Could Win: The Dark Knight

Should Win: Hellboy II: The Golden Army

All 3 would be deserving winners here.  Button’s makeup was innovative, TDK’s was iconic, and Hellboy’s was the hardest achievement. I’ll buy the Button love.

Best Visual Effects:

Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Could Win: Iron Man

Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

If Button loses this one, it loses them all.

Best Sound Mixing:

Will Win: Wall-E

Could Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: Wall-E

If Slumdog is the barn burner it has looked like for the last 2 months, it takes these sound categories. I think voters know they will be giving the film 6 or 7 other awards, so they may make the correct choices and go with the robot and the bat.

Best Sound Editing:

Will Win: The Dark Knight

Could Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: The Dark Knight

Same explanation as Mixing.

Best Original Score

Will Win: A.R. Rahman - Slumdog Millionaire

Could Win: Thomas Newman - Wall-E

Should Win: Alexandre Desplat - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Slumdog love goes here, though people may want to spread the love and give Newman his first Oscar in a million nominations (8 to be exact.)

Best Orignal Song:

Will Win: Jai Ho - Slumdog Millionaire

Could Win: Down To Earth - Wall-E

Should Win: None.

I wish on my earlier Oscar pool predictions I would have wised up to the Jai Ho love, but it really could go either way. Although, neither deserve the award, someone else does.

Best Animated Feature:

Will Win: Wall-E

Could Win: Kung Fu Panda

Should Win: Wall-E

I would say this is locked up, but KFP did go 13-13 at the Annie’s, where Wall-E came up empty handed.

Best Foreign Language Film:

Will Win: Waltz With Bashir

Could Win: The Class

Should Win: The Class

Foreign Language and the rest of the categories are crap shoots, that prognostigators can never really get a grip of. Not to be stereotypical, but I’ll go with Bashir, which I assume will get a lot of the Jewish vote.

Best Documentary Feature:

Will Win: Man On Wire

Could Win: Trouble In The Water

Should Win: Man on Wire

Man on Wire has been the long assumed favorite, but really who knows?

Best Live Action Short:

Will Win: Toyland

Could Win: Pig

Should Win: Toyland

Based on buzz, I’d say its between these two.

Best Animated Short:

Will Win: Presto

Could Win: La Maison en Petits Cubes

Should Win: Presto

Hard to go against Pixar.

Best Documentary Short:

Will Win: The Conscience of Nhem En

Could Win: The Witness

Should Win: The Conscience of Nhem En

Media picks are with The Witness, but out of the people who have seen all of the nominees, (something that is a requirement to vote on the shorts) say that is the weakest of the 4 and Nhem En is the strongest.


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