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Oscar Update 1/12/09 Every week until February 22, I’ll run an update on the nominations and eventually the winners. The guilds have spoken and they have said aloud what has been known to this prognosticator for months; The Caped Crusader is crashing the party and it may just take down the clown crown. Surprising in all the guilds noms this week there really wasn’t one surprise in any of them. Doubt is on serious life support and Rev Road and The Reader are dead, save for Kate Winslet and tech and possible screenplay nom.   The Globes brought some nice surprises in the way of Mickey Rourke and Winslet’s double-take down, though I would still say that this doesn’t make any performance the front runner, but puts some pressure on the leaders. None of the wins effect nominations, partly because the winners were already locked in, and there is only 1 day left to vote.  The best thing that can happen to Winslet is only get nominated for 1 and it will guarantee a win. The only thing that is left to really be seen is what impact will Wall·E have on this race considering it was ineligible for the WGA, DGA, and ACE nominations and had its own category for the Producers. (%) how locked in I feel a nominee is Best Picture: Conventional Wisdom tells you this is the 5, but I just can’t help seeing Frost/Nixon leave here or in Director. 1. Slumdog Millionaire (100) 2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (100) 3. Milk (85) 4. The Dark Knight (85) 4. Frost/Nixon (65) 6. Wall·E (35) 7. Doubt (20) 8. The Wrestler (10) Best Director: Same as Best Picture, after seeing Frost/Nixon I don’t see how anyone is putting that film as #1.  Watch out for Darren. 1. Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire (100) 2. David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (100) 3. Christopher Nolan -The Dark Knight (100) 4. Gus Van Sant - Milk (75) 5. Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon (60) 6. Darren Aronofsky - The Wrestler (30) 8. Andrew Stanton - Wall·E (25) 7. Jonathan Demme - Rachel Getting Married (10) Best Actor: Jenkins could pull the rug out from under Eastwood or Pitt. If Eastwood gets in, he’s the underdog with a shot. And after his Globe win, I have this sneaking suspicion about Colin Farrell. 1. Sean Penn - Milk (100) 2. Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler (100) 3. Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon (100) 4. Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (75) 5. Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino (70) Contenders: Richard Jenkins - The Visitor (45), Colin Farrell - In Bruges (10) Best Actress: This race is wide open at the bottom, any mixture of the bottom 2 and the contenders seem possible. The same goes for who will win on top. 1. Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married (100) 2. Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road (100) 3. Meryl Streep - Doubt (100) 4. Angelina Jolie - Changeling (50) 5. Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky (45) Contenders: Kristen Scott Thomas - I Loved You So Long, Cate Blanchett - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Melissa Leo - Frozen River Best Supporting Actor: 1. Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight (100) 2. Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt (100) 3. Josh Brolin - Milk (100) 4. Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder (80) 5. Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire (75) Contenders: James Franco - Milk (45) Best Supporting Actress: The 5th slot is wide open. 1. Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona (100) 2. Viola Davis - Doubt (100) 3. Kate Winslett - The Reader (90) 4. Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (80) 4. Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler (70) Contenders: Amy Adams - Doubt (60)

Oscar Update 1/12/09

Every week until February 22, I’ll run an update on the nominations and eventually the winners.

The guilds have spoken and they have said aloud what has been known to this prognosticator for months; The Caped Crusader is crashing the party and it may just take down the clown crown.

Surprising in all the guilds noms this week there really wasn’t one surprise in any of them. Doubt is on serious life support and Rev Road and The Reader are dead, save for Kate Winslet and tech and possible screenplay nom.  

The Globes brought some nice surprises in the way of Mickey Rourke and Winslet’s double-take down, though I would still say that this doesn’t make any performance the front runner, but puts some pressure on the leaders. None of the wins effect nominations, partly because the winners were already locked in, and there is only 1 day left to vote.  The best thing that can happen to Winslet is only get nominated for 1 and it will guarantee a win.

The only thing that is left to really be seen is what impact will Wall·E have on this race considering it was ineligible for the WGA, DGA, and ACE nominations and had its own category for the Producers.

(%) how locked in I feel a nominee is

Best Picture: Conventional Wisdom tells you this is the 5, but I just can’t help seeing Frost/Nixon leave here or in Director.

1. Slumdog Millionaire (100)

2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (100)

3. Milk (85)

4. The Dark Knight (85)

4. Frost/Nixon (65)

6. Wall·E (35)

7. Doubt (20)

8. The Wrestler (10)

Best Director: Same as Best Picture, after seeing Frost/Nixon I don’t see how anyone is putting that film as #1.  Watch out for Darren.

1. Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire (100)

2. David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (100)

3. Christopher Nolan -The Dark Knight (100)

4. Gus Van Sant - Milk (75)

5. Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon (60)

6. Darren Aronofsky - The Wrestler (30)

8. Andrew Stanton - Wall·E (25)

7. Jonathan Demme - Rachel Getting Married (10)

Best Actor: Jenkins could pull the rug out from under Eastwood or Pitt. If Eastwood gets in, he’s the underdog with a shot. And after his Globe win, I have this sneaking suspicion about Colin Farrell.

1. Sean Penn - Milk (100)

2. Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler (100)

3. Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon (100)

4. Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (75)

5. Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino (70)

Contenders: Richard Jenkins - The Visitor (45), Colin Farrell - In Bruges (10)

Best Actress: This race is wide open at the bottom, any mixture of the bottom 2 and the contenders seem possible. The same goes for who will win on top.

1. Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married (100)

2. Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road (100)

3. Meryl Streep - Doubt (100)

4. Angelina Jolie - Changeling (50)

5. Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky (45)

Contenders: Kristen Scott Thomas - I Loved You So Long, Cate Blanchett - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Melissa Leo - Frozen River

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight (100)

2. Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt (100)

3. Josh Brolin - Milk (100)

4. Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder (80)

5. Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire (75)

Contenders: James Franco - Milk (45)

Best Supporting Actress: The 5th slot is wide open.

1. Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona (100)

2. Viola Davis - Doubt (100)

3. Kate Winslett - The Reader (90)

4. Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (80)

4. Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler (70)

Contenders: Amy Adams - Doubt (60)


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