Every week until February 22, I’ll run an update on the nominations and eventually the winners.

This is the calm before the storm. After next Sunday we will know the winners of the Globes, and all the noms for the Producer’s, Director’s, and Writer’s Guilds. This week I eliminated Revolutionary Road from the Best Picture race, whose 5th spot (and maybe even 4th) is still up for grabs, though we will know a lot more by the end of the week. Also, added Stanton to director’s whose been getting some buzz and put Eastwood into the 5th slot over Jenkins, but by a very slim margin.

(%) how locked in I feel a nominee is

Best Picture: (5+ Contenders)

1. Slumdog Millionaire (100)

2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (95)

3. Milk (75)

4. (Tied)The Dark Knight (65)

4. (Tied) Frost/Nixon (65)

6. Doubt (45)

7. Wall·E (40)

8. The Wrestler (15)

Best Director: (5+Contenders)

1. Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire (100)

2. David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (100)

3. Christopher Nolan -The Dark Knight (80)

4. Gus Van Sant - Milk (65)

5. Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon (60)

6. Darren Aronofsky - The Wrestler (30)

7. Jonathan Demme - Rachel Getting Married (15)

8. Sam Mendes - Revolutionary Road (15)

9. Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino (15)

10. Andrew Stanton - Wall·E (10)

Best Actor:

1. Sean Penn - Milk (100)

2. Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler (100)

3. Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon (100)

4. Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (70)

5. Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino (55)

Contenders: Richard Jenkins - The Visitor, Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road

Best Actress:

1. Meryl Streep - Doubt (100)

2. Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married (100)

3. Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road (90)

4. Angelina Jolie - Changeling (55)

5. Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky (45)

Contenders: Kristen Scott Thomas - I Loved You So Long, Cate Blanchett - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Melissa Leo - Frozen River

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight (100)

2. Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt (100)

3. Josh Brolin - Milk (90)

4. Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder (65)

5. Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire (60)

Contenders: James Franco - Milk, Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road, Ralph Fiennes - The Duchess

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona (100)

2. Viola Davis - Doubt (100)

3. Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler (80)

4. Kate Winslett - The Reader (80)

5. Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (75)

Contenders: Amy Adams - Doubt