Every week until February 22, I’ll run an update on the nominations and eventually the winners.

No nominations changed except I replaced Franco with Patel in supporting. We should know more in the next week or so, after a few of the guilds announce their nominees.

(%) how locked in I feel a nominee is

Best Picture: (5+ Contenders)

1. Slumdog Millionaire (100)

2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (95)

3. Milk (75)

4. The Dark Knight (70)

5. Frost/Nixon (60)

6. Doubt (40)

7. Wall·E (35)

8. Revolutionary Road (15)

9. The Wrestler (10)

Best Director: (5+Contenders)

1. Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire (100)

2. David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (100)

3. Christopher Nolan -The Dark Knight (85)

4. Gus Van Sant - Milk (65)

5. Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon (60)

6. Darren Aronofsky - The Wrestler (35)

7. Jonathan Demme - Rachel Getting Married (20)

8. Sam Mendes - Revolutionary Road (20)

9. Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino (15)/ 

Best Actor:

1. Sean Penn - Milk (100)

2. Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler (100)

3. Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon (100)

4. Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (70)

5. Richard Jenkins - The Visitor (50)

Contenders: Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road, Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino

Best Actress:

1. Meryl Streep - Doubt (100)

2. Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married (95)

3. Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road (90)

4. Angelina Jolie - Changeling (60)

5. Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky (45)

Contenders: Kristen Scott Thomas - I Loved You So Long, Cate Blanchett - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Melissa Leo - Frozen River

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight (100)

2. Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt (100)

3. Josh Brolin - Milk (95)

4. Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder (70)

5. Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire (50)

Contenders: James Franco - Milk, Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road, Ralph Fiennes - The Duchess

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona (100)

2. Viola Davis - Doubt (100)

3. Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler (80)

4. Kate Winslett - The Reader (80)

5. Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (75)

Contenders: Amy Adams - Doubt