Don’t be fooled by the Rays record, they are the 3rd best (and no worse than 5th best) team in the entire major leagues, it’s just that you have two powerhouses who are pretty much unstoppable. The AL East is hands down the best division in baseball.

New York Yankees

The Yankees are loaded to the brim with talent and if they get lucky a 110+ season isn’t unreasonable. That said, this is an older bunch and if injuries rear their ugly head, they don’t have the depth to replace it (though they do have the pockets to), and they could be in trouble.

Best Player: 3B Alex Rodriguez

Alex Rodriguez somehow put up a 30 HR, 100 RBI season last year (in dramatic fashion on the last day of the season) in a year where he missed a month of the season. Like Jeter, A-Rod is into the decline phase of his career, but for Rodriguez that means a 35 HR, .400 wOBA season with diminishing defense.

Potential Bust: SS Derek Jeter

I am an avid hater of Derek Jeter because of the credit he gets for his defense from the national media while being slightly below average or worse his entire career. 2009 was his best defensive year by a good margin, according to UZR, which helped lead him to have his career year with a 7.4 WAR. It’s truly unbelievable how good Derek Jeter is at his age and by the time he’s finished he will go down as one of the greatest players of all-time, for a variety of reasons. Noting that, I would assume his 2010 won’t be anywhere near that level, and I expect a regression down to the ~3.5 win level just because I don’t totally buy the defensive jump and in his age 36 season should see his bat get worse, not better. A 36 year old SS putting up 3.5 wins is nothing to sneeze at though.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox got better with the additions of Lackey, Cameron, Beltre, and Scutaro. That said, so did the Rays, Yankees, and Orioles. I think 2010 will see a better Red Sox team, but around the same win output due to the better teams in the division.

Best Player: 2B Dustin Pedroia

Dustin Pedroia followed up his MVP 2008 with another solid outing in 2009. His wOBA fell 20 points but some of that can be explained by a 34 point drop in BABIP. He managed to increase his BB% from 6.9% to 10.4% while slightly cutting down on his K’s, which is a great sign for the future. His power, speed, and defense stayed at their excellent levels and another 5, maybe 6+ win season or better should be expected from Pedroia in 2010.

Potential Bust: P Daisuke Matsuzaka

Many fans expected Daisuke would be in the god-tier of pitchers, but he has wallowed in mediocrity in his time in the majors. The talent is there, its just how consistent can he be? I think Daisuke is a bottom tier pitcher but he’s probably the best #5 in baseball.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are a tremendous team and would win any other division in baseball. If the Rays can improve their plate discipline and their young arms make huge leaps, while the Red Sox or Yankees get unlucky, then the Rays can make it to the playoffs. It is embarrassing that they or the Red Sox (or both) will not make the playoffs (sorry Yankees are a sure thing) and something has to be done to fix the ridiculousness of this fact. 

Best Player: 3B Evan Longoria

   Evan Longoria is an absolute beast who can actually get better. We are in a great time for 3rd basemen as Longoria, Zimmerman, Figgins, and Beltre are some of the best fielders to ever play 3rd base. Longoria nudges out A-Rod and Zimmerman for the best one overall, but if he can improve his BB/K to be at or near 1 (not an easy thing to do), he would probably be the best player in baseball.

Potential Bust: 2B/OF Ben Zobrist

    Zobrist had a once in a decade season last year. Not only was he amazing with his bat, as evidenced by his .408 wOBA, but he put up a 26.4 UZR splitting his time b/t 2B and the OF (with a dash of 1st, 3rd, and SS to make it even wackier). All that led to a major league leading 8.6 WAR (though Mauer put up 8.1 while missing a month and getting no fielding runs from being a catcher). I don’t believe Zoberist is that kind of hitter, probably his true talent is around .360-380, but that is still very good. I believe in the fielding, but still he just isn’t the best player in baseball or even in the elite class.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles have always been my AL team, and I’m glad to see that this team is on the precipice of coming back to relevance. Sadly, in the AL East this team isn’t even remotely close to the top of the division and another season of losing is on the books for 2010.

Best Player: OF Nick Markakis

Nick Markakis had a poor 2009, at least by his standards after the monster 2008 he put up. I won’t predict he is at his 2008 numbers, but I think a bounce back is assured for Markakis in 2010. Though, Matt Wieters may supplant him as the best player very, very soon.

Potential Bust: SS Miguel Tejada

    Miguel Tejada’s 2009 was a lesson in why batting average is irrelevant. Yes, he hit .313, but his OBP was .340. Thats a 2.8% BB rate…yikes. His .313 average was the second best in his career at the age of 35, so I would expect that number heads back to the .285-.290 region he is used to. He’s league average defensively, so it’s not like he’s…well Melvin Mora, but Tejada isn’t as good as some O’s fans think he is (Though, a move to 3rd should see his defense be more valuable.)

Toronto Blue Jays

This team is putrid and without the likes of Hill and Lind they would easily lose 100 games, especially in the powerhouse AL East.

Best Player: DH Adam Lind

   Adam Lind was fantastic at the plate for the Jays last year, putting up a .394 wOBA and a .932 OPS and 35 home runs. The offense is absolutely for real, and though he is a pretty bad defender, he at least can play the field enough to give other players a rest when need be. 

Potential Bust: 3B Edwin Encarnacion

   Encarnacion has dealt with some serious injuries in his recent past, and 2009 was his worst season in the majors. He is a giant question mark at 3rd, and they don’t have a replacement on the ready if he does fall off.