The NL Central should be another division that will be hard fought, but its undoubtedly the Cardinals’ to lose. The overall talent is below average, ranking only in front of the AL Central.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are a very good team and they sport 4 of the best players in baseball in Pujols, Holliday, Carpenter and Wainwright. Add to that a nice group of complimentary players like Yadier Molina and Ryan Ludwick, and you have the makings of a repeat.

Best Player: 1B Albert Pujols (God)

I don’t have to say anything about Albert Pujols other than that he is the best player in the league, and barring Joe Mauer going absolutely insane again or Hanley Ramirez finally making that last stride in his defense to overtake him, I see no reason to expect anything but another ~8 win season and an MVP.

Potential Bust: P Ryan Franklin

The St. Louis bullpen should be an addition to the team, but Franklin isn’t as good as the national media, his ERA or his SV% would have you think he is. A mediocre 1.83 K/BB, a unrepeatably lucky .269 BABIP and 3.2% HR/FB, led to 4.27 FIP. Expect some big regression in 2010.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have a solid line up and a decent pitching staff. With Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder among the very best in the game, if the BrewCrew’s young veterans Hart, Weeks, and Gallardo can make some strides this season, the Brewers will have a very good chance in the Central and the NL overall.

Best Player: 1B Prince Fielder and OF Ryan Braun

Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder put their names in the hat for best 3-4 punch in the league (with Utley/Howard, Pujols/Holliday, Teixiera/A-Rod). Both have tons and tons of power and will be at or near the top of the league in OPS. The main difference between the two is that Braun is a terrible fielder, and Fielder is a decent…fielder (though 1B is easier to play than OF). Fielder was one of the best players in the league last year and both of these guys are gonna be at the top of the league again in 2010.

Potential Bust: P Trevor Hoffman

Trevor Hoffman did his best Mariano Rivera impression by being one of the best closers in the game last year, at 41. I highly doubt he is THAT good again this year, but I don’t think he’ll Lidge it up or anything. This pick is merely based on his age, and not so much on past performance.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds display a solid offense, a spectacular defense, a below average rotation, and a good bullpen. If they get some unexpected breakout in their rotation (or maybe Aroldis Chapman is for real and is in the majors sooner rather than later) the Reds could make this far more interesting in the Central this year. I had them at 85 wins, but then I had to subtract 2 wins because Dusty Baker is dumber than The Marriage Ref.

Best Player: 1B Joey Votto

   Joey Votto is a fucking stud. By year’s end, I think we might be putting Votto into the group of Teixiera, Miggie, Fielder, and Howard. He is a good fielder, he has amazing plate discipline, and he can absolutely murder a ball. He is one of my favorite players in the league. (He did benefit from a ridiculously high BABIP last season, so hopefully that won’t kill him this year.)

Potential Bust: P Aroldis Chapman

   Now, from the scouting reports I’ve read most people who’ve seen him pitch are over-the-moon about this kid. The projection systems are not though, but projecting a young Cuban based on no minor league or college appearances is hard to do. I think he might be a bust to the everyday fan, but give this kid time and I’ll bet he will shine.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have talent and are surrounded by decent supporting players. If they can do something about the back of their rotation, and the Cardinals get hurt, they might be able to compete this year…maybe.

Best Player: 3B Aramis Ramirez

Aramis Ramirez has dealt with injuries for his entire career, but 2009 saw him hit bottom with a severe shoulder injury that forced him out for half the season. When he’s healthy Ramirez is one of the best hitters in the league, but the injury bug is never to far away from this guy.

Potential Bust: P Carlos Silva

    Not a “bust”, but Carlos Silva is the worst starter in the league and he will be making 8 figures next season, congratulations to former Mariners GM Bill Bavasi for that one. 

Houston Astros

The Astros are a pathetic excuse for an organization, but as a major league team they are better than bottom of the barrel…barely.

Best Player: 1B Lance Berkman

   Lance Berkman is the best player on the team, and is swiftly moving up there with Biggio and Bagwell as the best in Astros history. His 2009 wasn’t on par with his off the wall 2008, but a normalized BABIP and injuries are to blame for most of that. At 34, Berkman is at or heading towards his decline phase, but his career suggests his talent won’t decline rapidly, barring injuries. (HE LITERALLY WENT ON THE DL AS I WAS WRITING THIS)

Potential Bust: OF Michael Bourn

   2008 and 2009 couldn’t have been more different for the 27-year old; his offense went from being one of the worst in the league to near the top of his position in value. He could literally put up anything between a 1 to 5 win season, because a topsy turvy BABIP and UZR scores point to a highly volatile projection for the CF.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates are still rebuilding, and will be for the foreseeable future, but Jones, Duke, and especially McCutchen, should offer some bright spots for this very young club. And hey, I bet they beat last year’s record.

Best Player: OF Andrew McCutchen

   McCutchen is easily the best player on this team, and if you’re adding potential into this equation he is light years ahead. In his rookie debut, in only 2/3 a season, he put up 3.4 WAR. Most scouts see him as a decent center fielder who just needs some time to gain the kind of ability to make him a very good CF. He is my favorite young player out there and I expect huge things from this rising star.

Potential Bust: P Octavio Dotel

   Dotel can strike out any batter who stands in front of him; however, there’s a good chance he’ll walk them if he can’t. Brendan Donnelly will take over the job if Dotel can’t keep it together, and the rest of the bullpen is average or worse.