As you can see, the AL Central is full of mediocre teams and the Twins, White Sox, and Tigers should fight for the top spot.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins have the best offense in the division and a pitching staff that doesn’t have the kind of studs that their AL Central counterparts display, but are almost as good as the White Sox. This team would run away with this division if they didn’t post a combined ~ - 4.5 wins in OF defense, but as it is, I see them edging out their rivals and taking the AL Central crown.

Best Player: C Joe Mauer

Joe Mauer was am absolute freak show in 2009. In what was the best offensive season since Barry Bonds’ ridiculous 2002, Joe Mauer went off on the American League. The fact that he put up 8+ WAR with just his bat, while missing an entire month of the season, illustrates just how ridiculous it was. Add in the opinion that he is an above average defensive catcher, and you have 9 to 9.5 WAR season. Mauer won’t put up that season again, probably not even close, but if he wants to have a chance he will need to stay healthy and keep the pop that finally showed itself in 2009. Oh, and also not to drown in his hot tub full of money.

Potential Bust: 1B Justin Morneau

Justin Morneau is coming back from a season where he dealt with injuries, and Morneau has never been as good as the publicity he receives would suggest. I still think he’ll be the very good player he has been over his career, but if anyone on this team could fall apart it’s probably Morneau.

Chicago White Sox

They have a very good pitching staff and an offense that has talent but tons of question marks. If they had a better bullpen and Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones weren’t in the starting line up, they would be the sure thing here. That’s not the case however, and I expect this team to be OK, but with a chance to win a few more games considering the state of the AL Central.

Best Player: OF Carlos Quentin

The White Sox don’t really have an “elite” player, but instead many very good players. Quentin saw his break out 2008, followed by a 2009 that was diminished by injuries. 2008 proved he is loaded with talent, but will the injury linger and impact his bat and his glove, as it did in 2009. He will need to raise his walk rate and UZR to 2008 levels if he wants to be a +4 win player again.

Potential Bust: P Jake Peavy

Peavy came over mid-season last year, and didn’t make his debut until late September because of injuries to his elbow and ankle. He did look very good in his brief stint with the Chi Sox last year, but with durability concerns and a move from the wasteland that is Petco Park, a regression of some level should be expected. 

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers have some real bright spots with Cabrera, Verlander, and Scherzer, but too many positions are being filled by average or worse players to actually contend this year. Then again, its the AL Central, so don’t coiunt them out.

Best Player: 1B Miguel Cabrera

   Miggy is head and shoulders above his teammates and would be an MVP candidate if he had more support around him. After experiencing some off the field issues towards the end of last season, its being said that Cabrera has refocused on to his game and expects his best season yet. A .310/30/110, +5 win season is a certainty if he stays healthy and Miggy has settled into being a decent fielding 1B, to boot.

Potential Bust: OF Johnny Damon

   The Tigers signed Damon to a 1 yr/$8 million contract that should see the former Yankee and Red Sox primarily play LF for the team. The Tigers paid over-market for the aging veteran, and a move from the band box in NYC and another year towards 40 brings tons of question marks for Damon in 2010.

Cleveland Indians

The Indians have a slightly above average offense, especially when LaPorta and Santana are going to be in the line up. The pitching however is atrocious and the Indians are essentially the mirror image of the Royals. The return of Sizemore gives them the leg up.

Best Player: OF Grady Sizemore

Sizemore faced the first rough year in his career as injuries ravaged any sense of stability last year for Cleveland’s stud center fielder. He is expected at full strength coming into the spring and if that’s true look for another +5 to 6 win season.

Potential Bust: 1B Russell Branyan

    Branyan was the only big change for this team this offseason and provides them with the kind of power and walks that they wished they could get from Hafner. However, he holds many of the same plate discipline problems that haunt Hafner and now with durability issues, he is the biggest question mark on this team (other than the terrible pitching staff).

Kansas City Royals

The Royals have top-tier players in Greinke and Soria, but other than DeJesus and Butler, this is a team of also-rans who would be lucky to have a roster spot on most good teams. Without the above mentioned 4, this is a +110 loss team. If they were in the AL or NL East they would lose +120 games. Lucky for them, I guess.

Best Player: P Zach Greinke

   Not much has to be said about Greinke. 2009 was his coming out party as he posted a 2.33 FIP, 4.75 K/BB, and 242 strikeouts in rout to a league leading 9.4 WAR. That is a once in a decade season and I wouldn’t expect him to repeat those insane numbers, but it doesn’t mean he can’t be close.

Potential Bust: Yuniesky Betancourt

   This won’t be a bust, Betancourt’s terribleness just needs to be reported as often as possible as Betancourt is notoriously known around the stat world as being the worst player in baseball. To put it into perspective, his play in 2009 cost the Royals nearly 10 million dollars, a -2.2 WAR player. Not replacing him with Collaspo or Getz is something only GM Dayton Moore would allow.