And The Winner Is…
Mercifully, the Oscar race is over. This was a year that saw some big changes early, was looking increasingly boring, and in the last 2 weeks has gotten very interesting. The vast majority of categories are locks, or at the very least between 2 possibilities. However, Best Picture is still completely up in the air (pun intended).
Here are my rock solid picks, or I least guarantee that I get at least 80% right.
Best Picture:
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Could Win: Avatar
Should Win: Up
Should Have Been There: (500) Days of Summer
Avatar has almost the same chances as THL and either winning isn’t a surprise. 10 pictures and preferential voting could effect this completely, and even underdogs like Inglorious Basterds or Up in the Air could conceivably take it. I’m going with The Hurt Locker because it’s getting Director, and it has the PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, ASC awards.
Best Director:
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Could Win: James Cameron - Avatar
Should Win: James Cameron - Avatar
Should Have Been There: Neill Blomkamp - District 9
Bigelow has it in the bag and is a deserving winner, but I think what Cameron did with Avatar is still unbelievable.
Best Actor:
Will Win: Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
Could Win: Locked.
Should Win: Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
Should Have Been There: Sharlto Copley - District 9
Bridges is locked in, but I wish they would have recognized Copley’s screen debut.
Best Actress:
Will Win: Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Could Win: Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Should Have Been There: Saoirse Ronan - The Lovely Bones
Momentum is on Bullock’s side, but Streep could win on name alone because of how long it’s been since she actually got one of these. A split vote at the top could make for the British invasion of Carey Mulligan to step in, but I don’t think it’s likely.
Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Christoph Waltz - Inglorious Basterds
Could Win: Locked.
Should Win: Christoph Waltz
Should Have Been There: Zach Galifianakis- The Hangover
Waltz’s Hans Landa was the best performance of the year, and he will be rewarded for that.
Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Mo’Nique - Precious
Could Win: Locked.
Should Win: Mo’Nique
Should Have Been There: Paula Patton - Precious
Precious was full of wonderful performances, and I’m not sure they are handing this trophy to the right actress.
Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win: Inglorious Basterds
Could Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Up
Should Have Been There: (500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker is neck and neck with Inglorious Basterds and either film could take this one. I’m going Basterds because I think they will want to reward this film for more than just Christoph Waltz and because Harvey Weinstein wants it; and more often than not, Harvey gets what he wants. Also, I don’t see how you pass up (500) Days in this category.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: Up in the Air
Could Win: Precious
Should Win: District 9
Should Have Been There: The Lovely Bones
Up in the Air is 98% to win. I would love for District 9 to pull out a stunner, but I doubt it. Also, I wish people would have given The Lovely Bones a chance.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Up
Could Win: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Should Win: Up
Should Have Been There: Mary & Max
What’s worse, if Up loses or the fact that Mary & Max isn’t nominated?
Best Editing:
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Could Win: Avatar
Should Win: District 9
Should Have Been There: (500) Days of Summer
I’m willing to bet whatever film wins editing will win picture, and thus I’m going with THL. That said, I think the blend of documentary, drama and action styles that was utilized in District 9 is some of the best work in recent memory.
Best Cinematography:
Will Win: Avatar
Could Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Avatar
Should Have Been There: The Road
As you can see, the Avatar/Hurt Locker battle will be the theme of the night. Depending on what you think constitutes cinematography, your selection could be completely different, but to me nothing looked better than Avatar.
Best Art Direction:
Will Win: Avatar
Could Win: The Young Victoria
Should Win: Avatar
Should Have Been There: Inglorious Basterds
See above.
Best Costume Design:
Will Win: The Young Victoria
Could Win: CoCo Avant Chanel
Should Win: Abstain.
Should Have Been There: Watchmen
I only saw one of the films nominated, so I can’t say who should win, but best money is on Victoria taking it home.
Best Makeup:
Will Win: Star Trek
Could Win: Locked.
Should Win: Star Trek
Should Have Been There: District 9
Star Trek walks away with a trophy that has no business going to any one other than District 9.
Best Visual Effects:
Will Win: Avatar
Could Win: Locked.
Should Win: Avatar
Should Have Been There: Watchmen
Avatar couldn’t lose this if it tried.
Best Sound Mixing:
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Could Win: Avatar
Should Win: Avatar
Should Have Been There: District 9
THL won the guild award for this, but I think Avatar should sweep thru the techs this year. Again, how did District 9 not get in here? It got nominated for Best Picture, for god sakes!
Best Sound Editing:
Will Win: Avatar
Could Win: Star Trek
Should Win: Avatar
Should Have Been There: District 9
Again, see above.
Best Original Score
Will Win: Up
Could Win: Avatar
Should Win: Up
Should Have Been There: The Informant!
If Michael Giacchino loses this for the brilliant work he created in Up, then the Academy is more full of retards then presently thought.
Best Orignal Song:
Will Win: The Weary Kind - Crazy Heart
Could Win: Almost There - The Princess and the Frog
Should Win: The Weary Kind
Should Have Been There: Stu’s Song - The Hangover
The Weary Kind is the best and most memorable song in the bunch and should be an easy winner here.
Best Foreign Language Film:
Will Win: The Secrets in Their Eyes
Could Win: The White Ribbon
Should Win: A Prophet
If any of those 3 win it won’t be a surprise, but I hope it won’t be The White Ribbon.
Best Documentary Feature:
Will Win: The Cove
Could Win: Food Inc.
Should Win: The Cove
The Cove was one of the best films last year, period, and should take this one easily.
Best Live Action Short:
Will Win: Kavi
Could Win: The Door
Should Win: N/A
No clue.
Best Animated Short:
Will Win: A Matter of Loaf and Death
Could Win: The Lady and the Reaper
Should Win: Logorama
Wallace and Gromit have 3 Oscars, so I’ll stick with the hot hand.
Best Documentary Short:
Will Win: China’s Unnatural Disaster
Could Win: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Should Win: N/A
Either of these supposedly heart wrenching titles could win.
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