2010 Oscar Nomination Preview, Take 1
Bringing this back for MLIT Year 2.
After a year that saw 2 films (The Dark Knight, Wall-E) bluntly snubbed by the Academy, they made the decision to move to 10 films in the nomination field. I would argue that this should lead to more mainstream popular titles like TDK and Wall-E to get in. However, in a year which would be up there with some of the best in mainstream cinema, hugely popular and largely well-liked films like of Star Trek, District 9, and The Hangover won’t be close to landing nominations (OK D9 might be kinda close.) Anyway, here is my first crack at what the noms look like right now in the main categories, going in descending order of most likely to win.
Best Picture:
- Avatar
- Up In The Air
- The Hurt Locker
- Inglorious Basterds
- Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
- An Education
- Invictus
- Up
- A Serious Man
- The Messenger
Other possibilities: The Blind Side, Nine, District 9, Crazy Heart
This is a 3 film race between Avatar, Up in The Air, and The Hurt Locker with Inglorious Basterds as a dark horse contender that is definitely lurking. The bottom 2 aren’t solidly in, but I’d bet on A Serious Man. And with Nine face planting this week I’ll put The Messenger in as buzz seems to be heating up for it right now.
Best Director:
- Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
- James Cameron - Avatar
- Jason Reitman - Up In The Air
- Quentin Tarantino - Inglorious Basterds
- Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Other possibilities: Lee Daniels - Lee Daniels, Lone Scherfig - An Education
Again a 3 horse race, but with Bigelow in the lead to become the first female winner in Oscar history. Eastwood edges Daniels because he’s Clint Eastwood and they’re the Academy.
Best Actor:
- Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
- George Clooney - Up In The Air
- Colin Firth - A Single Man
- Morgan Freeman - Invictus
- Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
Other possibilities - Matt Damon - The Informant!
This is a strange year for this category. I don’t see this race as more than 6 deep and I’m going with Renner over Damon because of Hurt Locker love and Damon will split votes with his Invictus supporting turn. Also, I think Bridges chances are gonna be effected by the Academy’s response to the film and I have this weird feeling that Firth is flying under the radar for a huge upset.
Best Actress:
Other possibilities - Abbie Cornish - Bright Star, Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria, Marion Cotillard - Nine
Again this seems like a huge year for movies, but weak on “WOW” performances in all categories. Strangely, I think Mirren has a better chance of getting nominated than Bullock but Bullock a better chance to win…God I hope not.
Best Supporting Actor:
Other possibilities - Alfred Molina, Peter Sarsgaard - An Education, Christian McKay - Me and Orsen Welles, Alec Baldwin - It’s Complicated, Anthony Mackie - The Hurt Locker
Yikes this is weak. This is Waltz’s to lose and I think people are underrating the return of Woody. Tucci gave critically acclaimed turns in films with little to no support, but the lack of quality on the year I think gets him in solidly. The 5th slot is WIDE open and I’m slotting Damon in based on star-power and a film that most people like, but not a lot LOVE.
Best Supporting Actress:
- Mo’Nique - Precious
- Anna Kendrick - Up In The Air
- Vera Farmiga - Up In The Air
- Julianne Moore - A Single Man
- Samantha Morton - The Messenger
Other possibilities - Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench - Nine, Maggie Gyllenhall - Crazy Heart
Again, wide open past the Up In The Air ladies, but I’ll go with an unrewarded actress and a great performance in an up-and-coming film.
Best Original Screenplay:
Other possibilities - Avatar, The Messenger
Avatar could make a huge leap if the Academy just buries it in nominations. I think this is where voters will reward Inglorious Basterds (with Waltz too).
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Other possibilities - Fantastic Mr. Fox, Crazy Heart, Julie & Julia, The Last Station
Top 4 are almost certainly in and the 5th slot is completely up for grabs.
