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Nominations will be handed out Tuesday morning in Los Angeles, so I’ll take my final stab at what the predictions will be. Best Picture: The Social Network The King’s Speech The Fighter Black Swan Inception True Grit Toy Story 3 The Kids Are All Right 127 Hours The Town Other possibilities: Winter’s Bone The Social Network has won nearly every precursor in it’s path, so something very extreme will have to happen for it to lose now. I think The Fighter has a better chance than The King’s Speech. The bottom 2 spots will be 127 Hours, The Town, or Winter’s Bone, in some order. Best Director: David Fincher - The Social Network Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan Christopher Nolan - Inception Tom Hooper - The King’s Speech David O. Russell- The Fighter Other possibilities: Joel and Ethan Coen - True Grit Fincher has it walking in the door. The final spot will be Russell or the Coens. Best Actor: Colin Firth - The King’s Speech James Franco - 127 Hours Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network Jeff Bridges- True Grit Ryan Gosling - Blue Valentine Other possibilities: Robert Duvall - Get Low, Javier Bardem - Biutiful, Mark Wahlberg - The Fighter Again, Firth has this in the bag. The last spot is a revolving door. Best Actress: Natalie Portman - Black Swan Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole Jennifer Lawrence - Winter’s Bone Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit Other possibilities: Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine, Leslie Manville - Another Year, Hilary Swank - Conviction Portman has about a 90% chance of winning. The story here is whether Hailee Steinfeld will be put in lead by the category or if Paramount will get what they want and she becomes the favorite in the Supporting category. Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale - The Fighter Geoffrey Rush - The King’s Speech Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right Andrew Garfield - The Social Network Jeremy Renner - The Town Other possibilities: Matt Damon - True Grit, John Hawkes - Winter’s Bone Bale wins in a cake walk. The bottom 2 are fluid with the other possibilities. Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo - The Fighter Amy Adams- The Fighter Helena Bonham Carter - The King’s Speech Jackie Weaver - Animal Kingdom Mila Kunis - Black Swan Other possibilities: Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit, Barbara Hershey - Black Swan, Leslie Manville - Another Year Whether Steinfeld is put here or Actress will determine the winner here. If she is, I think she’ll win. If not, I think it will be Leo. Best Original Screenplay: The King’s Speech Inception Black Swan The Kids Are All Right The Fighter Other possibilities - Another Year I think this will be a dog fight between, TKS, Inception, and Black Swan. If that happens, I think Nolan finally gets his Oscar. Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network Toy Story 3 True Grit 127 Hours The Ghost Writer Other possibilities - Winter’s Bone The easiest prediction of all will be Sorkin winning. I think The Ghost Writer, a widely respected film, will get it’s recognition here. Zoom

Nominations will be handed out Tuesday morning in Los Angeles, so I’ll take my final stab at what the predictions will be.

Best Picture:

  1. The Social Network
  2. The King’s Speech
  3. The Fighter
  4. Black Swan
  5. Inception
  6. True Grit
  7. Toy Story 3
  8. The Kids Are All Right
  9. 127 Hours
  10. The Town

Other possibilities: Winter’s Bone

The Social Network has won nearly every precursor in it’s path, so something very extreme will have to happen for it to lose now. I think The Fighter has a better chance than The King’s Speech. The bottom 2 spots will be 127 Hours, The Town, or Winter’s Bone, in some order.

Best Director:

  1. David Fincher - The Social Network
  2. Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
  3. Christopher Nolan - Inception
  4. Tom Hooper - The King’s Speech
  5. David O. Russell- The Fighter

Other possibilities: Joel and Ethan Coen - True Grit

Fincher has it walking in the door. The final spot will be Russell or the Coens.

Best Actor:

  1. Colin Firth - The King’s Speech
  2. James Franco - 127 Hours
  3. Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
  4. Jeff Bridges- True Grit
  5. Ryan Gosling - Blue Valentine

Other possibilities: Robert Duvall - Get Low, Javier Bardem - Biutiful, Mark Wahlberg - The Fighter

Again, Firth has this in the bag. The last spot is a revolving door.

Best Actress:

  1. Natalie Portman - Black Swan
  2. Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
  3. Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
  4. Jennifer Lawrence - Winter’s Bone
  5. Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit

Other possibilities: Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine, Leslie Manville - Another Year, Hilary Swank - Conviction

Portman has about a 90% chance of winning. The story here is whether Hailee Steinfeld will be put in lead by the category or if Paramount will get what they want and she becomes the favorite in the Supporting category.

Best Supporting Actor:

  1. Christian Bale - The Fighter
  2. Geoffrey Rush - The King’s Speech
  3. Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right
  4. Andrew Garfield - The Social Network
  5. Jeremy Renner - The Town

Other possibilities: Matt Damon - True Grit, John Hawkes - Winter’s Bone

Bale wins in a cake walk. The bottom 2 are fluid with the other possibilities.

Best Supporting Actress:

  1. Melissa Leo - The Fighter
  2. Amy Adams- The Fighter
  3. Helena Bonham Carter - The King’s Speech
  4. Jackie Weaver - Animal Kingdom
  5. Mila Kunis - Black Swan

Other possibilities: Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit, Barbara Hershey - Black Swan, Leslie Manville - Another Year

Whether Steinfeld is put here or Actress will determine the winner here. If she is, I think she’ll win. If not, I think it will be Leo.

Best Original Screenplay:

  1. The King’s Speech
  2. Inception
  3. Black Swan
  4. The Kids Are All Right
  5. The Fighter

Other possibilities - Another Year

I think this will be a dog fight between, TKS, Inception, and Black Swan. If that happens, I think Nolan finally gets his Oscar.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

  1. The Social Network
  2. Toy Story 3
  3. True Grit
  4. 127 Hours
  5. The Ghost Writer

Other possibilities - Winter’s Bone

The easiest prediction of all will be Sorkin winning. I think The Ghost Writer, a widely respected film, will get it’s recognition here.


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