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World Series Preview I’m not going to go into the statistical analysis I’ve done before, because I’m tired and that shit takes forever and only like 3 people get it lol. Instead I’ll just go over what I think will be the big stories and essential performances that each team needs to win. Phillies Big Brown vs. Big Brown (vs. Big Brown) Will Howard be able to hit the lefty heavy rotation of the Yanks? His season numbers against lefties is .207/.298/.356 with all of 6 homers, with only 1 coming at home. Specifically, in 7 at bats against Sabathia, he is 3 for 7 with a walk and a double, but a small sample size does not an indicator make. Howard doesn’t need to hit for average as long as the hits he gets are large ones. If he can keep putting the power behind the ball like he has all postseason and up his game against Sabathia and Pettitte, this might be a very breezy walk to championship #2. Will the real Cole Hamels please stand up? The current Cole Hamels looks like a shell of the defending WS MVP. Cole saw his ERA and WHIP rise this season, but really if you look at the indicator stats, he was just as good as 2008. His LD%, GB%, HR/FB% rates were all relatively the same, and he actually saw a decrease in BB%. Combine all that and it should be no surprise his FIP was 3.72 in both seasons. The differences between the 2 seasons are few, but difference makers. His BABIP for 2008 was .270, that number rose to .325 in 2009. Simply put, he was very lucky in 2008, and very unlucky in 2009. The second is something that is hard to measure unless you watch him pitch, Cole Hamels pitches like an impatient, stubborn child. He is getting killed on pitches when he is ahead in the count. At a time when most pitches put players away and take control of a game, he is throwing up meatballs that are getting crushed, and the numbers support that. If Cole Hamels can stick his head on straight for one week, he could make the Yankees look like idiots. If he doesn’t, he might not make it to the 2nd start. Pedro Martinez and the Yankees There are 2 questions about Pedro. Is he too over the hill to expect another gem like he did in game 2 of the NLCS or should we have more faith in the greatest pitcher of his generation? The other is, will Pedro be the Yankees bitch once again and wilt under the lights of the House That Ruth Built v.3? He famously said, “I just tip my hat and call the Yankees my daddy.” That does not induce much confidence in any Phillies fan. Yankees Overrated! Don’t get me wrong, the Yankees sport some of the greatest players not only playing right now, but ever. When Derek Jeter is your 5th best player, thats disturbing. However, they are not without some players that are only known because they are Yankees and are actually quite poor by comparison. The chief of these has to be Mr. AJ Burnett, as he leads a class of players like Joba Chamberlin, Melky Cabrera, and Nick Swisher who are just not nearly as good as you would think by the notoriety they get. Now yes, AJ has the tools to be as good as anyone. However, rarely do you see those tools completely in use. He is a member of the Cole Hamels school of Head Cases, and can easily fall apart at the slightest hint of danger. If the Yankees can get 1 or 2 quality starts from Burnett, the odds of them winning this series jump to an almost certainty. Where Are You Mark Teixiera? As good as A-Roid has been this postseason, Teix has almost been as bad. He is hitting a lowly .205/.273/.308. I don’t care if Rodriguez is hitting .438/.548/.969 (fuck), if Teix can’t get on with some authority in from of him, he won’t be nearly as damaging. All is not bad for Teixiera though. He sports a career .391/.462/.696 in 23 ABs against Phillies ace Cliff Lee, with 5 xb hits and 6 RBIs. Alex Roidriguez is soooo unclutch! (Not) Finally, A-Rod has gotten that playoff monster off his back this season, however he never really deserved to have it in the first place. If you’re going based on numbers, he has been within one standard deviation of his regular season numbers since coming over to the Yankees. And if you wanna talk about Clutchness, wanna know who has a lower postseason clutch score than A-Rod since 2004-2007? His name rhymes with Erek Peter. If Rodriguez plays to 75% of what he has this post season, he’ll still be the best player on the field, and considering there are a handful of potential nominees and locks for the hall of fame sharing it with him, that is scary. Prediction If I have to guess, I think Howard will be pretty good, though maybe not as great as he has been in the last 2 weeks. Pedro is a big game pitcher, and I have a feeling he is going to go out there and prove something. Hamels is just such a wildcard, and I think he and Burnett will negate one another. As for Teix, I can’t imagine he’ll be worse than he’s been, so I look for him to bounce back. On the other side of that, I think A-Rod is going to regress a bit, but will still be an enormous threat every time he is at the plate. I think the one person no one is talking about that is going to make a huge impact on this series is Jayson Werth. He is in the elite class of outfielders in MLB and NYC is going to be very surprised with what this guy can do. All that said, I’m going with the Phillies in 6. I say that thinking that the Phils will surprise and take game 1 in NYC. If they do not, the Yanks probably take it in 6, and if the Phillies don’t win game 2 either, this is over in 5. Zoom

World Series Preview

I’m not going to go into the statistical analysis I’ve done before, because I’m tired and that shit takes forever and only like 3 people get it lol. Instead I’ll just go over what I think will be the big stories and essential performances that each team needs to win.

Phillies

Big Brown vs. Big Brown (vs. Big Brown)

Will Howard be able to hit the lefty heavy rotation of the Yanks? His season numbers against lefties is .207/.298/.356 with all of 6 homers, with only 1 coming at home. Specifically, in 7 at bats against Sabathia, he is 3 for 7 with a walk and a double, but a small sample size does not an indicator make.

Howard doesn’t need to hit for average as long as the hits he gets are large ones. If he can keep putting the power behind the ball like he has all postseason and up his game against Sabathia and Pettitte, this might be a very breezy walk to championship #2.

Will the real Cole Hamels please stand up?

The current Cole Hamels looks like a shell of the defending WS MVP. Cole saw his ERA and WHIP rise this season, but really if you look at the indicator stats, he was just as good as 2008. His LD%, GB%, HR/FB% rates were all relatively the same, and he actually saw a decrease in BB%. Combine all that and it should be no surprise his FIP was 3.72 in both seasons.

The differences between the 2 seasons are few, but difference makers. His BABIP for 2008 was .270, that number rose to .325 in 2009. Simply put, he was very lucky in 2008, and very unlucky in 2009. The second is something that is hard to measure unless you watch him pitch, Cole Hamels pitches like an impatient, stubborn child. He is getting killed on pitches when he is ahead in the count. At a time when most pitches put players away and take control of a game, he is throwing up meatballs that are getting crushed, and the numbers support that.

If Cole Hamels can stick his head on straight for one week, he could make the Yankees look like idiots. If he doesn’t, he might not make it to the 2nd start.

Pedro Martinez and the Yankees

There are 2 questions about Pedro.

Is he too over the hill to expect another gem like he did in game 2 of the NLCS or should we have more faith in the greatest pitcher of his generation?

The other is, will Pedro be the Yankees bitch once again and wilt under the lights of the House That Ruth Built v.3? He famously said, “I just tip my hat and call the Yankees my daddy.” That does not induce much confidence in any Phillies fan.

Yankees

Overrated!

Don’t get me wrong, the Yankees sport some of the greatest players not only playing right now, but ever. When Derek Jeter is your 5th best player, thats disturbing. However, they are not without some players that are only known because they are Yankees and are actually quite poor by comparison.

The chief of these has to be Mr. AJ Burnett, as he leads a class of players like Joba Chamberlin, Melky Cabrera, and Nick Swisher who are just not nearly as good as you would think by the notoriety they get.

Now yes, AJ has the tools to be as good as anyone. However, rarely do you see those tools completely in use. He is a member of the Cole Hamels school of Head Cases, and can easily fall apart at the slightest hint of danger. If the Yankees can get 1 or 2 quality starts from Burnett, the odds of them winning this series jump to an almost certainty.

Where Are You Mark Teixiera?

As good as A-Roid has been this postseason, Teix has almost been as bad. He is hitting a lowly .205/.273/.308. I don’t care if Rodriguez is hitting .438/.548/.969 (fuck), if Teix can’t get on with some authority in from of him, he won’t be nearly as damaging.

All is not bad for Teixiera though. He sports a career .391/.462/.696 in 23 ABs against Phillies ace Cliff Lee, with 5 xb hits and 6 RBIs.

Alex Roidriguez is soooo unclutch! (Not)

Finally, A-Rod has gotten that playoff monster off his back this season, however he never really deserved to have it in the first place. If you’re going based on numbers, he has been within one standard deviation of his regular season numbers since coming over to the Yankees. And if you wanna talk about Clutchness, wanna know who has a lower postseason clutch score than A-Rod since 2004-2007? His name rhymes with Erek Peter.

If Rodriguez plays to 75% of what he has this post season, he’ll still be the best player on the field, and considering there are a handful of potential nominees and locks for the hall of fame sharing it with him, that is scary.

Prediction

If I have to guess, I think Howard will be pretty good, though maybe not as great as he has been in the last 2 weeks. Pedro is a big game pitcher, and I have a feeling he is going to go out there and prove something. Hamels is just such a wildcard, and I think he and Burnett will negate one another.

As for Teix, I can’t imagine he’ll be worse than he’s been, so I look for him to bounce back. On the other side of that, I think A-Rod is going to regress a bit, but will still be an enormous threat every time he is at the plate.

I think the one person no one is talking about that is going to make a huge impact on this series is Jayson Werth. He is in the elite class of outfielders in MLB and NYC is going to be very surprised with what this guy can do.

All that said, I’m going with the Phillies in 6. I say that thinking that the Phils will surprise and take game 1 in NYC. If they do not, the Yanks probably take it in 6, and if the Phillies don’t win game 2 either, this is over in 5.


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