My Life In Technicolor

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NLCS Preview I’m not going to go into the ALCS, but I’ll say this: The Yankees should win; the Angels will win. I just think the Angels have a team that has parts that perfectly compliment one another. That said, The Yankees could just bash their brains in and put dozens of runs on the board and make all that mute. I guess we’ll see. My pick is Angels in 6. As for the NLCS, I obviously have a rooting interest, so discard anything you feel is biased. Lets go through this by positions (I’ll be using WAR to evaluate the players’ overall performances, and the splits are OBP/SLG/OPS) 1st Base: James Loney: (1.4 WAR) .357/.399/.756 Ryan Howard: (4.9 WAR) .360/.571/.931 This one is a laugh. Loney is a good enough fielder to provide some value, but getting those kind of numbers from your 1st baseman is of great detriment to the Dodgers. HUGE EDGE: Phillies 2nd Base Ronnie Belliard: (1.3 WAR) .325/.451/.776 Chase Utley: (7.7 WAR) .397/.508/.905 Hahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahaha DISTURBING EDGE: PHILLIES Shortstop: Rafael Furcal: (3.3 WAR) .335/.375/.711 Jimmy Rollins: (2.4 WAR) .296/.423/.719 Now this is interesting for a couple of reasons. Rollins suffered from one of the lowest BABIP’s among any player (.251) and has been much better in the last third of the season…but so has Furcal. They are washes for defense too, so… EDGE: Push 3rd Base Casey Blake: (4.3 WAR) .363/.468/.832 Pedro Feliz: (1.2 WAR) .308/.386/.694 This one is the exact reverse of 1st base. Blake is an above average defender, and Feliz used to be way above average, but is now Blake’s equivalent. And one glance of those offensive numbers and it is clear. HUGE EDGE: DODGERS Left Field: Manny Ramirez: (3.7 WAR*) .418/.531/.949 (*Pro-rated to 148 games) Raul Ibanez: (4.1 WAR) .347/.552/.899 Raul had the better year, but it was his best year ever. This was Manny’s 2nd worst year of his career, and yet they are that close. Manny’s D is the worst in the league, so hopefully that will come into play, but Raul is no…well Matt Kemp. VERY SLIGHT EDGE: Dodgers CENTER FIELD Matt Kemp: (5.1 WAR) .352/.490/.842 Shane Victorino: (3.4 WAR) .358/.445/.803 Offensively, this is pretty close. Victorino gets more hits and has more speed, Kemp gets more walks and has more power. Defensively, Kemp is the elite CF in baseball, Victorino is the reigning Gold Glove winner, but statistically his range has decreased (though I’ve argued this is in response to his LF counterpart). So I’ll go with… EDGE: Dodgers Right Field Andre Ethier: (2.6 WAR) .361/.508/.869 Jayson Werth: (4.7 WAR) .373/.506/.879 Offensively, as you can see, they are almost identical twins. They are 2 of the best offensive outfielders in the game. The difference comes in defense, where Ethier is a joke (made less funny by his LF counterpart), and Werth is above average, though less than he was last year. That said I’ll go… Edge: Phillies Catcher Russel Martin: (2.1 WAR) .352/.329/.680 Carlos Ruiz (2.2 WAR) .355/.425/.780 Russel Martin used to be so good. He put up a WAR of 5.2 in 2007, and 4.6 in 2008. He completely tanked this year by comparison. But what we can see is a tanked Martin is a lot like Carlos Ruiz normally. Chooch has a bit more power, defensively (which WAR doesn’t calculate for catchers) is Martin’s superior, and by all accounts, catches a pretty good game. Slight Edge: Phillies All together, position by position it’s fairly even overall, but Chase over Belliard makes it a winner for the Phillies. Overall the WAR values say this is farther apart than it appears with the final positional tallies as Dodgers: 23.8 Phillies: 30.6. Now on to the pitching. Starting Pitchers (WAR, ERA/FIP/WHIP, K/BB%) Dodgers Clayton Kershaw: (4.2 WAR) 2.79/3.08/1.23 2.03% Vicente Padilla: (2.0 WAR) 4.46/4.45/1.43 1.80% Hiroki Kuroda: (2.2 WAR) 3.76/3.58/1.14 3.63% Randy Wolf: (3.0 WAR) 3.23/3.96/1.10 2.76% Phillies Cole Hamels: (3.8 WAR) 4.23/3.72/1.29 3.91% Pedro Martinez: (0.6 WAR*) 3.63/4.28/1.25 4.63% (*Short Season, so irrelevant) Cliff Lee: (6.6 WAR) 3.22/3.11/1.24 4.21% Joe Blanton: (2.2 WAR) 4.05/4.45/1.32 2.76% Now I think it is very important for Manuel to put Blanton in Game 4, instead of Happ. Happ is desperately needed in the bullpen with the bench bats (Thome and Hudson, specifically) that could be used in the late games. Now I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he stupidly doesn’t do this, but let’s assume he does. I keep hearing how these two rotations are close, but looking at the stats, this isn’t really all that close. When a 2.76 K/BB% is your lowest, you have a pretty good staff. Lee is the stud of the whole bunch, with Hamels and Kershaw being fairly close in talent. Altogether, I will almost take any staff that has Lee and Hamels at the top over Kershaw and…Padilla? Vicente Padilla. Really? Now I’ll bet he’ll pitch some kind of fluke gem tomorrow night, but Torre has some balls putting out Vicente against a line up that is so lefty heavy like the Phillies are. These are his 2009 and career splits (courtesy of Fangraphs): 2009:Vs RHB: .246/.301/.363, 2.35 K/BBVs LHB: .303/.384/.453, 1.54 K/BBCareer:Vs RHB: .241/.300/.368, 3.03 K/BBVs LHB: .297/.380/.479, 1.30 K/BB Yea. Good luck with that. The bullpen’s are 2 different, complex stories. In summary, the Dodgers have a very good bullpen, but are over and misused by Torre (as he has always done) and could be a little worn out. If they are healthy enough, they could be a huge difference maker. The Phillies are in a different bind, with a bullpen that is full of giant question marks. Will Happ, Blanton, or Pedro see the majority of Pen time? Can older veterans like Scott Eyre, Chan Ho Park, and Chad Durbin work some magic in their later years? Is Brad Lidge back or should Phillies fans turn off the TV in the 9th? If the answers to all those answers are positive, then I think the bullpens are fairly close. If not, this could be the difference. In terms of WAR, Dodgers win out 5.9 to 3.8. Add that to the Rotation value and the pitchign staffs totals are Dodgers: 17.3, Phillies: 17. That is freakishly close, with the Dodgers bullpen being the difference. So lets add all that up and we have a Dodger WAR value of 41.1, and the Phillies at 47.6. That is fairly close, and add that to a 7 game series being a freakishly small sample size, really either team winning 4-2 or 4-3 is to be expected. The home field advantage of the Dodgers are another plus for them, but my pick is the Phillies in 7. It’s gonna be a long, hard battle, one way or another. Enjoy it. Go Phightins!

NLCS Preview

I’m not going to go into the ALCS, but I’ll say this:

The Yankees should win; the Angels will win. I just think the Angels have a team that has parts that perfectly compliment one another. That said, The Yankees could just bash their brains in and put dozens of runs on the board and make all that mute. I guess we’ll see. My pick is Angels in 6.

As for the NLCS, I obviously have a rooting interest, so discard anything you feel is biased.

Lets go through this by positions (I’ll be using WAR to evaluate the players’ overall performances, and the splits are OBP/SLG/OPS)

1st Base:

James Loney: (1.4 WAR) .357/.399/.756

Ryan Howard: (4.9 WAR) .360/.571/.931

This one is a laugh. Loney is a good enough fielder to provide some value, but getting those kind of numbers from your 1st baseman is of great detriment to the Dodgers.

HUGE EDGE: Phillies

2nd Base

Ronnie Belliard: (1.3 WAR) .325/.451/.776

Chase Utley: (7.7 WAR) .397/.508/.905

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahaha

DISTURBING EDGE: PHILLIES

Shortstop:

Rafael Furcal: (3.3 WAR) .335/.375/.711

Jimmy Rollins: (2.4 WAR) .296/.423/.719

Now this is interesting for a couple of reasons. Rollins suffered from one of the lowest BABIP’s among any player (.251) and has been much better in the last third of the season…but so has Furcal. They are washes for defense too, so…

EDGE: Push

3rd Base

Casey Blake: (4.3 WAR) .363/.468/.832

Pedro Feliz: (1.2 WAR) .308/.386/.694

This one is the exact reverse of 1st base. Blake is an above average defender, and Feliz used to be way above average, but is now Blake’s equivalent. And one glance of those offensive numbers and it is clear.

HUGE EDGE: DODGERS

Left Field:

Manny Ramirez: (3.7 WAR*) .418/.531/.949 (*Pro-rated to 148 games)

Raul Ibanez: (4.1 WAR) .347/.552/.899

Raul had the better year, but it was his best year ever. This was Manny’s 2nd worst year of his career, and yet they are that close. Manny’s D is the worst in the league, so hopefully that will come into play, but Raul is no…well Matt Kemp.

VERY SLIGHT EDGE: Dodgers

CENTER FIELD

Matt Kemp: (5.1 WAR) .352/.490/.842

Shane Victorino: (3.4 WAR) .358/.445/.803

Offensively, this is pretty close. Victorino gets more hits and has more speed, Kemp gets more walks and has more power. Defensively, Kemp is the elite CF in baseball, Victorino is the reigning Gold Glove winner, but statistically his range has decreased (though I’ve argued this is in response to his LF counterpart). So I’ll go with…

EDGE: Dodgers

Right Field

Andre Ethier: (2.6 WAR) .361/.508/.869

Jayson Werth: (4.7 WAR) .373/.506/.879

Offensively, as you can see, they are almost identical twins. They are 2 of the best offensive outfielders in the game. The difference comes in defense, where Ethier is a joke (made less funny by his LF counterpart), and Werth is above average, though less than he was last year. That said I’ll go…

Edge: Phillies

Catcher

Russel Martin: (2.1 WAR) .352/.329/.680

Carlos Ruiz (2.2 WAR) .355/.425/.780

Russel Martin used to be so good. He put up a WAR of 5.2 in 2007, and 4.6 in 2008. He completely tanked this year by comparison. But what we can see is a tanked Martin is a lot like Carlos Ruiz normally. Chooch has a bit more power, defensively (which WAR doesn’t calculate for catchers) is Martin’s superior, and by all accounts, catches a pretty good game.

Slight Edge: Phillies

All together, position by position it’s fairly even overall, but Chase over Belliard makes it a winner for the Phillies. Overall the WAR values say this is farther apart than it appears with the final positional tallies as Dodgers: 23.8 Phillies: 30.6.

Now on to the pitching.

Starting Pitchers (WAR, ERA/FIP/WHIP, K/BB%)

Dodgers

Clayton Kershaw: (4.2 WAR) 2.79/3.08/1.23 2.03%

Vicente Padilla: (2.0 WAR) 4.46/4.45/1.43 1.80%

Hiroki Kuroda: (2.2 WAR) 3.76/3.58/1.14 3.63%

Randy Wolf: (3.0 WAR) 3.23/3.96/1.10 2.76%

Phillies

Cole Hamels: (3.8 WAR) 4.23/3.72/1.29 3.91%

Pedro Martinez: (0.6 WAR*) 3.63/4.28/1.25 4.63% (*Short Season, so irrelevant)

Cliff Lee: (6.6 WAR) 3.22/3.11/1.24 4.21%

Joe Blanton: (2.2 WAR) 4.05/4.45/1.32 2.76%

Now I think it is very important for Manuel to put Blanton in Game 4, instead of Happ. Happ is desperately needed in the bullpen with the bench bats (Thome and Hudson, specifically) that could be used in the late games. Now I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he stupidly doesn’t do this, but let’s assume he does.

I keep hearing how these two rotations are close, but looking at the stats, this isn’t really all that close. When a 2.76 K/BB% is your lowest, you have a pretty good staff. Lee is the stud of the whole bunch, with Hamels and Kershaw being fairly close in talent. Altogether, I will almost take any staff that has Lee and Hamels at the top over Kershaw and…Padilla?

Vicente Padilla. Really? Now I’ll bet he’ll pitch some kind of fluke gem tomorrow night, but Torre has some balls putting out Vicente against a line up that is so lefty heavy like the Phillies are. These are his 2009 and career splits (courtesy of Fangraphs):

2009:
Vs RHB: .246/.301/.363, 2.35 K/BB
Vs LHB: .303/.384/.453, 1.54 K/BB
Career:
Vs RHB: .241/.300/.368, 3.03 K/BB
Vs LHB: .297/.380/.479, 1.30 K/BB

Yea. Good luck with that.

The bullpen’s are 2 different, complex stories. In summary, the Dodgers have a very good bullpen, but are over and misused by Torre (as he has always done) and could be a little worn out. If they are healthy enough, they could be a huge difference maker.

The Phillies are in a different bind, with a bullpen that is full of giant question marks. Will Happ, Blanton, or Pedro see the majority of Pen time? Can older veterans like Scott Eyre, Chan Ho Park, and Chad Durbin work some magic in their later years? Is Brad Lidge back or should Phillies fans turn off the TV in the 9th?

If the answers to all those answers are positive, then I think the bullpens are fairly close. If not, this could be the difference. In terms of WAR, Dodgers win out 5.9 to 3.8.

Add that to the Rotation value and the pitchign staffs totals are Dodgers: 17.3, Phillies: 17. That is freakishly close, with the Dodgers bullpen being the difference.

So lets add all that up and we have a Dodger WAR value of 41.1, and the Phillies at 47.6. That is fairly close, and add that to a 7 game series being a freakishly small sample size, really either team winning 4-2 or 4-3 is to be expected. The home field advantage of the Dodgers are another plus for them, but my pick is the Phillies in 7.

It’s gonna be a long, hard battle, one way or another. Enjoy it.

Go Phightins!


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