In a recent HitFix article, it is suggested that Transformers: Revenge of The Fallen could challenge the 5-day record take of $202 million of The Dark Knight last year. Tracking shows that it should easily shatter $100 million in its first 3 days, which I agree with; its predecessor did $98 mil. in its first 4 days over the July 4, 2007 weekend, on its way to $319 mil. domestic. Those kinds of numbers suggest that the sequel’s opening week(end) should be over 115 million.

However, Transformers opens on a Wednesday, (6/26 to be exact) and that is obviously not a holiday so that will hurt its opening numbers but should see big 2nd week numbers.

I think the odds of it hitting 202 million is about 0.0001 %. I think it can beat the previous record holder, Spider-Man 2’s $155 million. If I had to bet, I’d say its 5-day haul will be about $175 million.