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Ruben Amaro Jr. Got Lucky…For Now. After winning the World Series in October, Ruben Amaro Jr. was given the golden ticket when long-time GM Pat Gillick retired; basically Amaro was given a blank check (OK not Yankees blank check, but “real team” blank check). When Amaro was picked over long time Assistant GM Mike Arbuckle, I was furious. Arbuckle was the real reason why the Phillies are what they are today. Arbuckle was the architect of the farm system that produced Pat Burrell, Jimmy Rollins, Brett Myers, Ryan Madson, Shane Victorino, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, and even our lord and savior himself. Amaro was nothing but the son of a famous Phillie who was being bred by Gillick because he was just like him: Out of Touch. In response to the unexpected mashing by Raul Ibanez, these words actually came out of his mouth last week, “I don’t believe in new fangled statistics.” These “new fangled statistics” he is talking about is fielding stats like UZR and Zone Ratings and projection systems like PECOTA and ZIPS that are used to project the expected output and value of a player. Obviously, I don’t have to tell you why this makes me call for his head. I won’t go into a big spiel but if you are interested, read the book Moneyball by Michael Lewis about the history and intital use of these “new fangled statistics” by Oakland GM Billy Beane. Hell, if you can wait a year and a half, just see the movie starring Brad Pitt. Now, Raul Ibanez is a 36-year old who previously was worth $10.7, 3.7, 10.2 million from 2006-08. Now any baseball analyst not named Joe Morgan or Steve Phillips, would tell you that about age 36-37 a player hits the rapid downfall of their career. Now obviously there are exceptions, even non-steroid ones (read: Jamie Moyer). On top of this in 2007, Raul Ibanez’s defense cost the Mariners 20.5 runs or just over 2 wins, which in a close race like it was that year, makes a difference. That made him the 2nd worst LF only behind the worst of the worst, Manny Ramirez. In 2008, his fielding improved to -12.1 runs or a cost of 1+ wins; improved, but still not good. His offensive line was: .293/ 23 HR/ 110 RBI. Pretty darn good, and his 2 previous years were as consistent. From an offensive perspective he looks solid, but again he is a man who is closer to 40 than 30. So what does Amaro do? He gives a $31 million contract over 3 years to Ibanez; the contract ends at age 39. In an offseason with a glut of big bats this was a poor move. Take into the fact that he did not forsee the fall the market took and that free agents like Ibanez were getting 1-2 year deals worth $5-6 million a year, and he looks even worse. This is most likely to end badly. However, it has started beautifully. In fact, it couldn’t be any better at all. So far this year, Raul is .368/13 HR/ 35 RBI (He had 3 HR today and 7 RBI) through 35 games. Now I’m sad to say but Ibanez is not going to hit 60 HR and hit 162 RBI. If he plays the rest of his season at his ZIPS projection, we should see .306/ 30 HR/ 111 RBI; still a season any player would take. (Although, in 8 games against the lowly Nationals he is hitting .576 with 6 HR and 16 RBI. So maybe thats factoring a bit.) He is slugging over .700 and OBP over .400. I highly doubt he keeps an OPS over .950 let alone 1.100. On top of all that his glove as come alive! He already has given the Phils 5.8 runs above replacement and if he keeps at this pace, would be worth +24 runs or +2 1/2 wins! I’m not saying I expect that to happen, but even if he put up a +1 win season in the field I would be ecstatic. The fielding I believe can be explained by the fact that Seattle is a far bigger park and range can be greatly effected by this. Seattle has figured this out and gotten a bunch of speedsters and now have the best OF defense in baseball. Also, he didn’t have a glove like Victorino manning center, which helps him focus on covering a smaller area. All told, in 35 games, Ibanez has been worth $11 million, almost a million more than he produced in 162 games last season. This is unbelievable, astounding, mind-blowing, and not going to keep happening. The bat will slow up, maybe not soon, but it will. I think he can put up a top-tier season this year, but going forward he is still nearing 40 and history tells that he should be breaking down. Maybe he is one of the special few and god you know I hope he does. Ibanez is known for his unbeaten work ethic and keeps himself in top physical shape, so if anyone is the perfect candidate it should be him. Ibanez has made Amaro look like a genius so far, hell if he plays his next 70 games like he has his first 35 he will be worth the entire contract already. However, to flat out say that statistics and methods that have been tested and utilized to make organizations that have no business being competitive and turning them into the best in the game, is just ignorant. I am scared for the moment where this comes back and bites him in the ass, and if those “new fangled statistics” really are correct, it will. Zoom

Ruben Amaro Jr. Got Lucky…For Now.

After winning the World Series in October, Ruben Amaro Jr. was given the golden ticket when long-time GM Pat Gillick retired; basically Amaro was given a blank check (OK not Yankees blank check, but “real team” blank check). When Amaro was picked over long time Assistant GM Mike Arbuckle, I was furious. Arbuckle was the real reason why the Phillies are what they are today.

Arbuckle was the architect of the farm system that produced Pat Burrell, Jimmy Rollins, Brett Myers, Ryan Madson, Shane Victorino, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, and even our lord and savior himself. Amaro was nothing but the son of a famous Phillie who was being bred by Gillick because he was just like him: Out of Touch.

In response to the unexpected mashing by Raul Ibanez, these words actually came out of his mouth last week, “I don’t believe in new fangled statistics.” These “new fangled statistics” he is talking about is fielding stats like UZR and Zone Ratings and projection systems like PECOTA and ZIPS that are used to project the expected output and value of a player. Obviously, I don’t have to tell you why this makes me call for his head.

I won’t go into a big spiel but if you are interested, read the book Moneyball by Michael Lewis about the history and intital use of these “new fangled statistics” by Oakland GM Billy Beane. Hell, if you can wait a year and a half, just see the movie starring Brad Pitt.

Now, Raul Ibanez is a 36-year old who previously was worth $10.7, 3.7, 10.2 million from 2006-08. Now any baseball analyst not named Joe Morgan or Steve Phillips, would tell you that about age 36-37 a player hits the rapid downfall of their career. Now obviously there are exceptions, even non-steroid ones (read: Jamie Moyer). On top of this in 2007, Raul Ibanez’s defense cost the Mariners 20.5 runs or just over 2 wins, which in a close race like it was that year, makes a difference. That made him the 2nd worst LF only behind the worst of the worst, Manny Ramirez.

In 2008, his fielding improved to -12.1 runs or a cost of 1+ wins; improved, but still not good. His offensive line was: .293/ 23 HR/ 110 RBI. Pretty darn good, and his 2 previous years were as consistent. From an offensive perspective he looks solid, but again he is a man who is closer to 40 than 30.

So what does Amaro do? He gives a $31 million contract over 3 years to Ibanez; the contract ends at age 39. In an offseason with a glut of big bats this was a poor move. Take into the fact that he did not forsee the fall the market took and that free agents like Ibanez were getting 1-2 year deals worth $5-6 million a year, and he looks even worse. This is most likely to end badly.

However, it has started beautifully. In fact, it couldn’t be any better at all.

So far this year, Raul is .368/13 HR/ 35 RBI (He had 3 HR today and 7 RBI) through 35 games. Now I’m sad to say but Ibanez is not going to hit 60 HR and hit 162 RBI. If he plays the rest of his season at his ZIPS projection, we should see .306/ 30 HR/ 111 RBI; still a season any player would take. (Although, in 8 games against the lowly Nationals he is hitting .576 with 6 HR and 16 RBI. So maybe thats factoring a bit.) He is slugging over .700 and OBP over .400. I highly doubt he keeps an OPS over .950 let alone 1.100.

On top of all that his glove as come alive! He already has given the Phils 5.8 runs above replacement and if he keeps at this pace, would be worth +24 runs or +2 1/2 wins! I’m not saying I expect that to happen, but even if he put up a +1 win season in the field I would be ecstatic. The fielding I believe can be explained by the fact that Seattle is a far bigger park and range can be greatly effected by this. Seattle has figured this out and gotten a bunch of speedsters and now have the best OF defense in baseball. Also, he didn’t have a glove like Victorino manning center, which helps him focus on covering a smaller area.

All told, in 35 games, Ibanez has been worth $11 million, almost a million more than he produced in 162 games last season. This is unbelievable, astounding, mind-blowing, and not going to keep happening.

The bat will slow up, maybe not soon, but it will. I think he can put up a top-tier season this year, but going forward he is still nearing 40 and history tells that he should be breaking down. Maybe he is one of the special few and god you know I hope he does. Ibanez is known for his unbeaten work ethic and keeps himself in top physical shape, so if anyone is the perfect candidate it should be him.

Ibanez has made Amaro look like a genius so far, hell if he plays his next 70 games like he has his first 35 he will be worth the entire contract already. However, to flat out say that statistics and methods that have been tested and utilized to make organizations that have no business being competitive and turning them into the best in the game, is just ignorant. I am scared for the moment where this comes back and bites him in the ass, and if those “new fangled statistics” really are correct, it will.


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