Lets check up on the Junior Circuit.

Forget the Rays, Here Come The Jays…Well, Maybe.

Well the hype of this being the best division in baseball was absolutely correct. What a lot of people didn’t see coming, myself included, is how strong the Toronto Blue Jays have been.

The key for them has been the starts of Aaron Hill, Marco Scutaro, and Adam Lind. Though all seem like decent players, they aren’t this good. Lind should get RBIs, but his SLG and OBP will come down. Scutaro will get his runs, and if he can keep up an average over .290, the Jays should be happy. Aaron Hill is the one that seems the most likely to be for real and could finally breakout to an All-Star level that many expected from him in the recent past. This offense is not the best in the AL East, let alone the league.

The pitching is slightly above average, but with the exception of Doc Halladay, they are only a decent assemblage of arms. They are a good bit better than I thought and they would win any other division in the AL, but they are the 4th best team in this division.

Zack Greinke Sold His Soul To The Devil (Or Zolof)

This is getting ridiculous. After Cliff Lee’s start last year, few thought you could start much better. They were wrong. Greinke, he of the 0.51 ERA and 0.79 WHIP w/ a 7.3/1 K/BB ratio and a nagging anxiety disorder, is pitching otherworldly. Greinke has been a solid player in his young career and actually started 2008 very well, but he has been something special.

Now, out of his 7 games he has faced only 2 good offenses (Toronto and Texas), so maybe we will see his numbers regress towards the mean a bit. However, even if he pitched the rest of the season at the level he did last year, he would finish with rate stats of 2.69 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 5/1 K BB and most likely a Cy Young Award.

Don’t Make Me Look Stupid Indians.

I was, and still am high on the chances for the Indians to take the Central. They sit at 11-21 and are currently 7.5 GB. To get to a reasonable spot to have a chance at the Division crown they will have to win 57.6% of their games, which is a lot harder than it sounds (Over 162 game season, thats a 93 win team.)

Their problems are almost entirely on the pitching front. They have a team ERA of 5.86 and teams are batting them around, at a .290 clip. Now a team like the Phillies can sustain this kind of terrible pitching because they have an electric offense, but the Indians are a team of average hitters and studs Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez. The Indians are going to need recently called up OF prospect Matt LePorta, the gem of the C.C. Sabathia deal, to give them power and consistency in the middle of the order.

If the team doesn’t get it turned around quickly, look for them to drop some salary,  by trading Cliff Lee, and rebuild for a shot ina weak division in 2010.

The Wild Wild West Worst

This division is just bad.

Oakland can’t hit, Texas can’t pitch, LA can’t stay healthy, and Seattle is barely average.

Oakland is hitting .239 and OPSing a mind-numbing .657. The worst offenders are Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera, and their big move of the off season, Matt Holliday. All are hitting under .235, though Giambi at least knows how to walk. Add to all this a pitching staff that just got out of high-school and this team seems to probably be very, very bad. I hope they can turn it around.

Texas knows how to hit. Ian Kinsler is batting like an MVP and Nelson Cruz has shown he is much better than his AAAA reputation. Hell even Andruw Jones remembered ho to hit. The problem is their pitching is just bottom of the barrel, with the exception of closer Frank Francisco who is proving that he deserves to be in the top tier of closers and starter Kevin Millwood. However, give them a year or two and this team could be a 90 win team once their Elite pitching prospects come to play with the big boys.

LA was a team that wasn’t as good as people thought, and then the other foot, and another foot, dropped. They first had to deal with the tragedy of the death of rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart and then were dealt with injury after injury to Ervin Santana, John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar and now Vlad Guerrerro. If they get healthy, they have a chance in this division.

The favorite right now has to be the Mariners. The reason is not good pitching or good hitting; no, they have been slightly above average while a little luck. Their key is defense. Seattle’s front office went out and got top-tier defensive talents in the outfield and after 1/6 of the season, they are far and away the best defensive team in baseball. If they can keep that up, they should be just good enough to pull this out.

Well thats it, I’ll have another update in about 3 weeks. Revised projected standings below.

AL EAST

1. Red Sox: 94-68 (-2)
2. Yankees: 90-73 (-4)
3. Tampa Bay: 87-75 (-2)
4. Blue Jays: 84-78 (+10)
5. Orioles: 73-89 (+1)

AL CENTRAL

1. Cleveland: 82-80 (-5)
2. Kansas City: 81-81 (+6)
3. Detroit: 80-82 (-2)
4. Minnesota: 77-85 (-2)
5. Chicago: 75-87 (+2)

AL WEST

1. Mariners: 84-78 (+9)
2. Angels: 82-80 (-2)
3. Rangers: 76-86 (+3)
4. Oakland: 75-89 (-10)